USD\/JPY cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,14 gerileyerek d\u00f6rt g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste s\u00fcren y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Hareket, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) artmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen geri \u00e7ekilmeyi izledi; bu durum g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na (belirsizlikte tercih edilen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck riskli yat\u0131r\u0131m ara\u00e7lar\u0131) talebi azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeni bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme turu beklentisi, risk alg\u0131s\u0131na duyarl\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 destekledi. \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Seyyid Abbas Araghchi\u2019nin cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Pakistan\u2019a gelmesi beklenirken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren endeks) 98,60\u2019a do\u011fru geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth, ate\u015fkesin k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yeni may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femesi durumunda bunun anla\u015fman\u0131n ihlali olaca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan gemi ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirterek, g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n daha fazla rol almas\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da yen, olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale (yetkililerin kur hareketini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) beklentileri ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019ndan gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla destek buldu. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 spek\u00fclatif hareketlere (k\u0131sa vadeli h\u0131zl\u0131 kazan\u00e7 ama\u00e7l\u0131 yo\u011fun al\u0131m-sat\u0131m) kar\u015f\u0131 ad\u0131m atmaya haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ABD ile yak\u0131n koordinasyon i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) bir sonraki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %0,75\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131, ancak ileride faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini tamamen d\u0131\u015flamamas\u0131 bekleniyor. MUFG, g\u00fcvercin tonlu (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha mesafeli, daha gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131na yak\u0131n) mesaj\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini; \u015fahin tonlu (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yak\u0131n, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen) mesaj\u0131n ise yeni dengeleyebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Paritenin y\u00fckseli\u015fine oynayanlar i\u00e7in ana risk, Japon yetkililerinden gelebilecek kur m\u00fcdahalesi. 2024 sonu ve 2025 ortas\u0131nda Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu seviyelere yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede yeni savunmak i\u00e7in devreye girmesiyle ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in 158,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun hak kullan\u0131m seviyesi) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, korunma (hedge: riski azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flem) ama\u00e7l\u0131 bir se\u00e7enek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Burada ana tema oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi). Bu nedenle uzun straddle veya strangle stratejileri (fiyat\u0131n yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sert hareketinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanma y\u00f6ntemleri) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. USD\/JPY\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) bu ay %11,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu da BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi belirsizli\u011fi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, hareketin y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tahmin etmeden b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131ndan yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verir.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015fleme ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 159,50\u2019de frene bast\u0131: Risk i\u015ftah\u0131yla dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, yen m\u00fcdahale beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. G\u00f6zler ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ve BoJ mesajlar\u0131nda; volatilite y\u00fckselirken opsiyonlarda korunma\/straddle stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45434\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}