BNY, Norve\u00e7 kronuna (NOK) daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ve Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi) beklentilerinin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deste\u011fin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Banka, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerinde (de\u011feri petrol, metal gibi emtialar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte hareket eden para birimleri) ivmenin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc; korunma (hedge: kur riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan i\u015flemler) ama\u00e7l\u0131 talebin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve faiz beklentilerinin tepe yapmas\u0131yla NOK\u2019ta para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
BNY, emtia d\u00f6vizlerinin daha \u00f6nce G10 para birimleri (geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin en \u00e7ok i\u015flem g\u00f6ren 10 para birimi) i\u00e7inde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; NOK ve AUD\u2019nin, enerji ve \u015fahin (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na yatk\u0131n) politika sayesinde \u201ccarry\u201dyi (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli paraya yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri arama) destekledi\u011fini belirtti. AUD\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnde en b\u00fcy\u00fck para \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, NOK iki g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f kaydetti.<\/p>\n
BNY, NOK\u2019un \u201cyeniden de\u011ferleme\u201d s\u00fcrecinin (piyasan\u0131n para birimini daha y\u00fcksek seviyeden fiyatlamas\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n yaln\u0131zca bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 daha i\u015faret etti\u011fini ve piyasadaki daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerine itiraz etti\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n
Norve\u00e7\u2019in t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi nisanda -19,1 ile belirgin bi\u00e7imde negatif kald\u0131; mart ay\u0131na g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti. Rapora g\u00f6re, y\u00fcksek enerji ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131, ticaret belirsizli\u011fi ve ek faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 beklentileri nedeniyle t\u00fcketici alg\u0131s\u0131 son d\u00f6nem ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyrediyor.<\/p>\n
Norges Bank, politika faizini son \u00fc\u00e7 toplant\u0131da %4,75\u2019te sabit tuttu; bu, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6neminin) zirvesine gelindi\u011fini teyit ediyor. Norve\u00e7\u2019te \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemlerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f enflasyon) y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,8\u2019e gerileyerek ge\u00e7en y\u0131l %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki zirvelerden indi. Bu tablo, merkez bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinde yeni faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor ve NOK i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir deste\u011fi zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enerji taraf\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm de 2025\u2019teki jeopolitik gerginlik d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla daha olumsuz. Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 dengelendi ve varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 82 dolar seviyesinde; daha \u00f6nce NOK\u2019a g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc giri\u015fleri tetikleyen zirvelerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda. Bu nedenle, d\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevlerinde (opsiyon, forward gibi; kur \u00fczerinden t\u00fcretilen finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) NOK\u2019un daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenece\u011fi beklentisine dayal\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131 beklenebilir.<\/p>\n
Yurt i\u00e7i ekonomide t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni zay\u0131f. \u00d6zellikle kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00fcven, Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n \u015fahin ad\u0131mlara y\u00f6nelmesini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu da NOK\u2019ta yukar\u0131 potansiyelin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yatay ya da daha zay\u0131f NOK\u2019tan faydalanan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Euro veya ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda NOK\u2019ta \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d call (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde olan al\u0131m opsiyonu) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re konumlanman\u0131n bir yolu olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, kurun belirgin y\u00fckselmemesinden ve yukar\u0131 alan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan gelir elde etmeyi hedefler.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan EUR\/NOK kuru ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 11,30 civar\u0131ndaki diplerden 11,90 b\u00f6lgesine y\u00fckseldi. Opsiyonlarla 12,00 seviyesine do\u011fru kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosuna pozisyon almak makul g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. NOK\u2019u destekleyen temel unsurlar\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n daha zay\u0131f bir kur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NOK\u2019ta r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine mi d\u00f6n\u00fcyor? BNY, enerji deste\u011finin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, faiz beklentilerinin tepe yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve hedge \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor; EUR\/NOK\u2019ta y\u00fckseli\u015f olas\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45433"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45433\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}