{"id":45429,"date":"2026-04-24T16:22:58","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T16:22:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/orta-dogudaki-belirsizlik-ve-riskten-kacisa-ragmen-euro-dolara-karsi-toparlandi-11700-seviyesinin-uzerine-cikti\/"},"modified":"2026-04-24T16:22:58","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T16:22:58","slug":"orta-dogudaki-belirsizlik-ve-riskten-kacisa-ragmen-euro-dolara-karsi-toparlandi-11700-seviyesinin-uzerine-cikti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogudaki-belirsizlik-ve-riskten-kacisa-ragmen-euro-dolara-karsi-toparlandi-11700-seviyesinin-uzerine-cikti\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizlik ve riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen euro dolara kar\u015f\u0131 toparland\u0131, 1,1700 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizli\u011fin besledi\u011fi **riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f** (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131p daha g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) havas\u0131na ra\u011fmen cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Parite, iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olan 1,1670\u2019ten tepki alarak 1,1700\u2019in \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve haftay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmaya y\u00f6neldi.<\/p>\n

Ate\u015fkes y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kalsa da ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi t\u0131rmand\u0131. Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 anla\u015fma imzalamaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131; \u0130srail, sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in \u201cABD\u2019den ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k\u201d bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; Tahran ise enerji tesisleri hedef al\u0131n\u0131rsa K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki petrol sahalar\u0131n\u0131 vuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi Verileri G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc Zay\u0131flatt\u0131<\/h3>\n

Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri zay\u0131f geldi. Almanya\u2019da **IFO \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 \u0130klimi endeksi** (\u015firketlerin mevcut durum ve beklentilerine dayal\u0131 g\u00fcven g\u00f6stergesi) nisan ay\u0131nda 84,4\u2019e gerileyerek Ekim 2022\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fransa\u2019da t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni de d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de odak, Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth ve General Dan Caine\u2019in 08:00\u2019de (12:00 GMT) yapaca\u011f\u0131 bilgilendirmedeydi. Avrupa\u2019da g\u00f6zler gelecek per\u015fembe yap\u0131lacak ECB toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrildi; faizlerin **sabit b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131** (faiz oran\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik yap\u0131lmamas\u0131) bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde EUR\/USD, 1,1645-1,1670 band\u0131nda destek buldu; 1,1720 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7, 1,1740 ise kritik seviye olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 4 saatlik \u0433\u0440\u0430\u0444ikte 14 periyotluk **RSI** (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; 0-100 aras\u0131nda fiyat momentumunu \u00f6l\u00e7er) 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. **MACD** (hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n fark\u0131na dayal\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) hafif negatif seyretti. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da hedef b\u00f6lgeler 1,1505-1,1525 band\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131rken, **g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f** (belirsizlikte dolar ve devlet tahvilleri gibi varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelim) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekliyor. Brent petrol\u00fcndeki son y\u00fckseli\u015f, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131narak Avrupa\u2019da **resesyon** (ekonomik daralma) endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2022\u2019de Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisini bask\u0131layan enerji krizine benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

ECB \u00d6ncesi Korunma (Hedge) Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

84,4 ile dip yapan zay\u0131f Almanya IFO verisi, gelecek haftaki Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha zor bir dengeye ta\u015f\u0131yor. Piyasa **\u015fahin duru\u015f**u (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na yak\u0131n tutum) fiyatl\u0131yor olsa da, zay\u0131f veriler ECB\u2019ye faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ertelemek i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sa\u011flayabilir. 2022\u2019de ECB\u2019nin enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u201cgecikti\u011fi\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131 varken EUR\/USD\u2019nin **paritenin alt\u0131na** (1,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131) sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, **EUR\/USD put opsiyonu** (belirli tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta) al\u0131m\u0131yla, ECB\u2019den **g\u00fcvercin s\u00fcrprize** (faiz indirimi\/gev\u015fek politika sinyali) veya \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 t\u0131rmanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 korunma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. 1,1645 deste\u011finin alt\u0131ndaki **kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na (strike)** odaklanmak mant\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir; bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 1,1525 b\u00f6lgesine h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareketi tetikleyebilir. **Opsiyon primi** (opsiyonun maliyeti) y\u00fckselse de, belirsiz ortamda riskin s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 belirler.<\/p>\n

Genel piyasa endi\u015fesi **VIX**\u2019te de g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. VIX (S&P 500 i\u00e7in beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 22\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu durum yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 tedirginli\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n sadece d\u00f6vizde de\u011fil, genel piyasada artabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. Bu nedenle ECB a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde EUR\/USD\u2019de **uzun straddle** (ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 ve vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma; b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden yararlanma) gibi, b\u00fcy\u00fck harekete oynayan stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi ve zay\u0131f Euro B\u00f6lgesi verileri EUR\/USD\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; 1,1645 deste\u011fi kritik. ECB \u00f6ncesi sabit faiz beklentisi, VIX y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle put\/straddle hedge\u2019lerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45429","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45429"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45429\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45429"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45429"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45429"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}