Meksika\u2019da mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 martta %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bir \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde %2,7\u2019ydi.<\/p>\n
Meksika\u2019da mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n martta %2,8\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi bizim i\u00e7in dikkat \u00e7ekici bir sinyal. Oran h\u00e2l\u00e2 tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olsa da, bu art\u0131\u015f i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n uzun s\u00fcredir \u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131 (i\u015f\u00e7i bulman\u0131n zor, \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu) seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemin ard\u0131ndan bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor olabilir. Bunu, y\u00fcksek faiz ortam\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi so\u011futmaya (b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yava\u015flatmaya) ba\u015flayabilece\u011fine dair ilk somut veri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu veri, Meksika Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Banxico) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc son veriler \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve i\u015flenmemi\u015f g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Banxico, bir yanda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131flamas\u0131, di\u011fer yanda ise hedefin h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin \u00fczerinde seyreden enflasyon aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu nedenle, faiz swap piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n (faiz riskine kar\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131lan, gelecekteki faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan takas s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) Banka k\u0131sa vadede s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu korusa bile 2026 sonu i\u00e7in faiz indirimlerini daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde fiyatlamaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Meksika pesosunun g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn\u2014ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 2025\u2019te \u201ccarry trade\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri arama i\u015flemi) ile \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ana temalardan biri\u2014art\u0131k k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD ile faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131 ihtimali, bu \u201cuzun MXN\u201d pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (peso lehine al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f pozisyonlar) \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini tetikleyebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, pesoda olas\u0131 de\u011fer kayb\u0131na d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle pozisyon almak i\u00e7in USD\/MXN paritesinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na (mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 olan, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in kurun y\u00fckselmesi gereken opsiyon) bakaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131 ve imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, alt\u0131 daralma) 51,5\u2019e gerilemesi, \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olas\u0131 ters r\u00fczg\u00e2rlara i\u015faret ediyor. Daha zay\u0131f bir t\u00fcketici, yurt i\u00e7i sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 bask\u0131layabilir ve IPC hisse endeksi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc daha belirsiz h\u00e2le getirebilir. Bu nedenle, Meksika hisselerinde olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 \u201chedge\u201d (korunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 i\u015flem) olarak geni\u015f piyasa ETF\u2019lerinde (endeks fonu; borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Meksika\u2019da i\u015fsizlik martta %2,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck art\u0131\u015f, b\u00fcy\u00fck mesaj. Y\u00fcksek faiz so\u011futuyor olabilir. Enflasyon %4+ Banxico\u2019yu s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; 2026 indirimleri fiyatlan\u0131r. Peso ve hisselerde hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45427","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45427"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45427\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}