\u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Esmaeil Saqab Esfahani, The Guardian\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 Mehr Haber Ajans\u0131\u2019na g\u00f6re, petrol sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ABD\u2019yi \u201ck\u0131sasa k\u0131sas\u201d (misilleme) ile uyard\u0131. Esfahani, \u0130ran petrol kuyular\u0131n\u0131n hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 halinde, bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeyi bar\u0131nd\u0131ran \u00fclkelerdeki petrol tesislerini vuracaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Esfahani, Tahran\u2019\u0131n m\u00fczakere heyetinin \u201cm\u00fczakere masas\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131n yakas\u0131na yap\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d ifade etti. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ranl\u0131lar\u0131n enerji arz\u0131 konusunda endi\u015fe etmemesi gerekti\u011fini, \u201cgerekli d\u00fczenlemelerin\u201d yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD Savunma Bakan\u0131 Pete Hegseth ile Genelkurmay Ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 Birle\u015fik Komitesi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Dan Caine, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bombalanmas\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlanan Operation Epic Fury hakk\u0131nda bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fczenleyeceklerini s\u00f6yledi. Bilgilendirme 08:00 ET (12:00 GMT) i\u00e7in planland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u201cPetrol tesislerine k\u0131sasa k\u0131sas\u201d tehdidi, piyasalarda sert dalgalanma riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ABD bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in ham petrolde \u201cen yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na\u201d y\u00f6neliyor. (Al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call: belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme; en yak\u0131n vadeli: vadesi en yak\u0131n kontrat.) Bu hareket, \u201c\u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekiyor. (\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen oynakl\u0131k\/implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131.) CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) 50 puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu seviye 2025\u2019teki tedarik zinciri krizlerinden beri kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. (Endeks: piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge.)<\/p>\n
Bu tablo daha \u00f6nce de ya\u015fand\u0131. 2019\u2019da Suudi Aramco tesislerine sald\u0131r\u0131larda Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri tek seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 y\u00fckselmi\u015f, 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131yla fiyatlar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 130 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. (Vadeli i\u015flem\/futures: gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u00e7in standart s\u00f6zle\u015fme.) Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rneklere g\u00f6re, somut bir arz kesintisi Brent\u2019i (\u015fu s\u0131ralar yakla\u015f\u0131k 98 dolar) birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde rahatl\u0131kla \u00fc\u00e7 haneli seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015fa a\u00e7\u0131k portf\u00f6yler i\u00e7in (\u00f6zellikle ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k ve sanayi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131) \u201ckorunma\/hedge\u201d ihtiyac\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. (Hedge: fiyat hareketlerine kar\u015f\u0131 riski azaltmak i\u00e7in ters y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon alma.) Bu ama\u00e7la petrol vadeli i\u015flemleriyle fiyat \u201ckilitleme\u201d yap\u0131l\u0131rken, yak\u0131t fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na duyarl\u0131 havayolu ve deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hisselerinde \u201csat\u0131m opsiyonu\u201d al\u0131m\u0131 da g\u00fcndemde. (Sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put: belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme.) Bu t\u00fcr savunma pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n maliyeti h\u0131zla y\u00fckselse de, olas\u0131 bir arz \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren sinyallerden Brent\u2013WTI \u201cfark\u0131n\u0131\/spread\u201dini yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekiyor. (Spread: iki fiyat aras\u0131ndaki fark.) Bu fark 7 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine do\u011fru a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131yor; bu da Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik riskin Brent fiyat\u0131n\u0131 daha do\u011frudan etkiledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, gerilim artt\u0131k\u00e7a bu fark\u0131n daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fine oynayan i\u015flemler i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon t\u0131rman\u0131yor: \u0130ran\u2019dan \u201ck\u0131sasa k\u0131sas\u201d uyar\u0131s\u0131, ABD\u2019nin Epic Fury brifingi \u00f6ncesi piyasay\u0131 gerdi. Opsiyon talebi implied volatiliteyi y\u00fckseltiyor; OVX 50+ bekleniyor, Brent\u2019te \u00fc\u00e7 haneler g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45419","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45419"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45419\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}