SNB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Martin Schlegel, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan SNB Genel Kurulu\u2019nda, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politika faizinde (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya verdi\u011fi temel faiz) hareket etmekte ve d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi (kur \u00fczerinde etkili olmak i\u00e7in piyasadan d\u00f6viz al\u0131p satmak) yapmakta s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z hareket alan\u0131na sahip oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Schlegel, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131f tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini belirtti. Gerekirse SNB\u2019nin para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) ayarlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n
Schlegel, enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyonu (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) y\u00fckseltece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle SNB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etme iste\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ifade etti.<\/p>\n
A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 (CHF) hafif de\u011fer kazand\u0131. USD\/CHF (ABD dolar\u0131\/\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 paritesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7860 seviyesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geriledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131, frang\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in daha sert bir duru\u015f sinyali veriyor. Bu, USD\/CHF gibi paritelerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir \u201ctavan\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir. Bu nedenle, USD\/CHF\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle \u201cy\u00fckseli\u015f opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 satma\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 daha cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcnebilir. Buradaki strateji, al\u0131m opsiyonu fark\u0131 satmak (call spread satmak: belirli bir seviyenin \u00fczerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak yerine, y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle iki farkl\u0131 seviyede al\u0131m opsiyonu i\u015flemi kurmak) olabilir; ama\u00e7 0,7900 civar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan yararlanmak.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, son verilerle de destekleniyor: \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyon Mart\u2019ta %1,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu art\u0131\u015fta Brent petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn (k\u00fcresel referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 etkili oldu. Opsiyon piyasas\u0131 da bu de\u011fi\u015fimi fiyatlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bir ayl\u0131k \u201crisk reversal\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ran g\u00f6sterge) frang\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik primi ge\u00e7en haftaya g\u00f6re art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n SNB\u2019nin para birimini savunaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle pozisyon de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa, SNB\u2019nin faiz indirimlerine ara verme ihtimalini yeterince fiyatlam\u0131yor olabilir; \u00f6zellikle ge\u00e7en ay faizi %1,25\u2019e indirdikten sonra. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131na dair uyar\u0131s\u0131 ve \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z hareket alan\u0131\u201d vurgusu, faizlerde en kolay y\u00f6n\u00fcn art\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 olmayabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa vadeli \u0130svi\u00e7re faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131n (faiz riskini sabit\/de\u011fi\u015fken faiz takas\u0131yla y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan faiz t\u00fcrevi) daha y\u00fcksek seviyelere do\u011fru yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131 izlenmeli.<\/p>\n
SNB\u2019nin ge\u00e7mi\u015fte sert ad\u0131mlar att\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2015\u2019te frang\u0131 euroya sabitleyen uygulamay\u0131 (kur taban\u0131\/peg) kald\u0131rmalar\u0131 piyasada a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa (fiyatlar\u0131n \u00e7ok sert dalgalanmas\u0131) yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, m\u00fcdahale mesajlar\u0131n\u0131n piyasada ciddiye al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Mevcut s\u00f6ylem daha yumu\u015fak olsa da benzer bi\u00e7imde piyasaya \u201chaz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olun\u201d mesaj\u0131 veriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re hisseleri i\u00e7in risk olu\u015fturabilir. Bu tablo, Ekonomik \u0130\u015fler Devlet Sekreterli\u011fi\u2019nin (SECO) 2026 GSYH (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi) b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %1,1\u2019e indirmesiyle de teyit ediliyor. Bu ortam, \u0130svi\u00e7re Piyasa Endeksi (SMI) \u00fczerinde koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (protective put: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta amac\u0131yla sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak) stratejilerini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Jeopolitik gerginlik ve olas\u0131 enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131, hisse piyasas\u0131nda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine zemin haz\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
SNB\u2019den piyasalara net mesaj: Schlegel, faiz ve d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinde \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z alan\u201d vurgulad\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu riski enflasyonu art\u0131rabilir; CHF g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken USD\/CHF\u2019de tavan, opsiyonlarda y\u00fckseli\u015f sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45416\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}