ABD\u2019de S&P 500 \u015firketlerinin 1. \u00e7eyrek (Q1) k\u00e2rlar\u0131 \u015fu ana kadar %15 artt\u0131. ABD\u2019de bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk iki haftada \u015firketlerin %84\u2019\u00fc hisse ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00e2r (EPS: \u015firket k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n hisse say\u0131s\u0131na b\u00f6l\u00fcnmesi) tahminlerini a\u015ft\u0131. Ancak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen sonu\u00e7lar beklentilerin %2\u2019den az \u00fczerinde kald\u0131 ve uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretti.<\/p>\n
2. \u00e7eyrek (Q2) ve y\u0131l geneli i\u00e7in \u015firketlerin verdi\u011fi y\u00f6nlendirme (guidance: y\u00f6netimin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck sat\u0131\u015f\/k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k beklentisi) kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. Nisan ay\u0131nda ABD\u2019de hisse y\u00fckseli\u015fleri daha geni\u015f bir alana yay\u0131ld\u0131 ve di\u011fer b\u00f6lgeleri de destekledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n piyasa liderli\u011fi h\u00e2l\u00e2 yar\u0131 iletkenler, yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 hisseler ve enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn baz\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerinde yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor; savunma hisseleri ise geride kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
K\u00e2r beklentilerinde en b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim enerjide g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm -%12\u2019den +%1\u2019e d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu sekt\u00f6rde beklentilerin kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki haftadaki bilan\u00e7o a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 kritik g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yapay zek\u00e2 taraf\u0131ndaki performans yaz\u0131l\u0131m ve yar\u0131 iletkenler aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX: ABD\u2019de yar\u0131 iletken hisselerini izleyen endeks) yeni tarih\u00ee zirvelere ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k (volatility: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta dalgalanmas\u0131) ve jeopolitik belirsizlik; ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck k\u00e2r tahminleri, de\u011ferleme \u00e7arpanlar\u0131 (valuation multiples: fiyat\/kazan\u00e7 gibi piyasan\u0131n \u015firkete bi\u00e7ti\u011fi de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctleri) ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilecek unsurlar olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Sekt\u00f6rler ve hisseler aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesi, \u00e7eyre\u011fin kalan\u0131nda daha se\u00e7ici bir piyasaya i\u015faret ediyor. Daha geni\u015f liderli\u011fin yeniden olu\u015fmas\u0131 ise petrol\u00fcn istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131 ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riskinin azalmas\u0131na ba\u011flan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Q1 k\u00e2r b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da, beklentilerin \u00e7ok az a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 bir uyar\u0131 sinyali. 2026\u2019n\u0131n kalan\u0131na ili\u015fkin y\u00f6nlendirmenin bu kadar da\u011f\u0131n\u0131k olmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n temkinli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, VIX\u2019in (S&P 500 oynakl\u0131k endeksi: piyasan\u0131n beklenen dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) bu ay 18\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla da g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu tablo, geni\u015f endeks \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) alman\u0131n, daha hedefli stratejilere g\u00f6re daha az cazip olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Liderlik olduk\u00e7a dar; yar\u0131 iletkenler ve baz\u0131 yapay zek\u00e2 hisselerinde yo\u011fun. SOX\u2019un bu hafta yeniden rekor k\u0131rmas\u0131, bu alandaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Yukar\u0131 potansiyeli hedeflerken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019lerinde (borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonu) veya \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan hisselerde al\u0131m spread\u2019i (call spread: ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki al\u0131m opsiyonu ile maliyeti ve riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131ran yap\u0131) de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Ana risk unsuru petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: ileri bir tarihte belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) Nisan boyunca s\u00fcren jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle 85-95 dolar band\u0131nda geni\u015f dalgaland\u0131. Bu durum enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc tek y\u00f6ne basit bir pozisyon i\u00e7in zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu nedenle enerji ETF\u2019lerinde \u201ciron condor\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131nda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla kurulan, fiyat\u0131n belirli bantta kalmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen strateji) ile prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (premium selling: opsiyon satarak prim geliri hedefleme) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. B\u00f6ylece y\u00fcksek z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131ktan (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) yararlan\u0131l\u0131rken y\u00f6n riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutulur.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131ndaki belirgin performans fark\u0131, e\u015fle\u015ftirme i\u015flemleri (pairs trade: bir varl\u0131kta long, di\u011ferinde short\/koruma pozisyonu alarak g\u00f6reli getiri hedefleme) i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunuyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknoloji hisselerinde uzun pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131rken, geride kalan sanayi veya savunma sekt\u00f6rlerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) ile korunma d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, makro \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y\u00fc daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131larken performans ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S&P 500\u2019de Q1 k\u00e2rlar\u0131 %15 artt\u0131; EPS s\u00fcrprizi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Guidance kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k, VIX 18+ ile temkin s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Liderlik dar: yar\u0131 iletken\/AI. Petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 riski art\u0131r\u0131yor; se\u00e7ici opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45414"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45414\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}