WTI, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 94,45 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 97,00 dolar\u0131 test etmi\u015fti. Zirveden geri \u00e7ekilse de haftay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 art\u0131\u015fla kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. <\/p>\n
Fiyatlar bu hafta, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ba\u011fl\u0131 aksakl\u0131klar nedeniyle y\u00fckseldi. Haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda gemi al\u0131koymalar, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc bir kargo gemisine komandolar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131karma yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler ve bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en tankerler i\u00e7in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 1 dolarl\u0131k \u201cge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti\u201d iddias\u0131 yer ald\u0131. <\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA), 17 Nisan haftas\u0131nda ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 1,9 milyon varil artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Piyasa 1,2 milyon varil azal\u0131\u015f bekliyordu. Stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131, WTI \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. <\/p>\n
WTI (West Texas Intermediate), Brent ve Dubai ile birlikte \u00f6nde gelen \u00fc\u00e7 ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fcnden biridir. ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilen \u201chafif\u201d (yo\u011funlu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, rafineride i\u015flenmesi g\u00f6rece kolay) ve \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc\u201d (\u00e7evresel a\u00e7\u0131dan daha temiz, rafineride daha az i\u015flem gerektiren) bir petrold\u00fcr. Cushing (Oklahoma) teslimat merkezinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131r ve fiyat\u0131 piyasada \u201creferans fiyat\u201d (benchmark) olarak s\u0131k kullan\u0131l\u0131r. <\/p>\n
WTI fiyat\u0131n\u0131 temel olarak arz-talep dengesi belirler: k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme, siyasi riskler, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, OPEC\u2019in \u00fcretim kararlar\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131 gibi etkenler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar. API (American Petroleum Institute\/Amerikan Petrol Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc) ve EIA\u2019n\u0131n haftal\u0131k stok verileri de fiyatlar\u0131 etkiler. Bu iki kurumun sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman birbirine yak\u0131n gelse de piyasada s\u00fcrpriz yaratabilir. <\/p>\n
WTI 94,50 dolar civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, zay\u0131f temel veriler (stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi) ile jeopolitik risklerin fiyat\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmesi aras\u0131nda \u00e7eki\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu haftaki yakla\u015f\u0131k %7\u2019lik y\u00fckseli\u015fin ana nedeni, k\u00fcresel arz i\u00e7in kritik bir \u201cdar bo\u011faz\u201d (ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu b\u00f6lge) olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki riskler. Bu gerilim belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor; belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde \u201ct\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn\u201d (dayanak varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n fiyat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemleri daha fazla ilgi g\u00f6rebilir. <\/p>\n
Piyasa, k\u0131sa vadeli stok verilerinden \u00e7ok, arz\u0131n ciddi bi\u00e7imde kesilmesi ihtimaline a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veriyor. Tarihsel olarak d\u00fcnya petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7iyor. Bu nedenle bo\u011faz\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre kapanmas\u0131, ABD stoklar\u0131ndaki 1,9 milyon varillik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n etkisini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilir. Bu y\u00fczden \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda fiyat hareketinde ana belirleyici jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. <\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemler, 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen tabloya benzer: petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede sert ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) belirgin artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi, \u201c\u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131k\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n gelecekte bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) seviyesini de yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r. Bu da \u201copsiyon primi\u201dni (opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in \u00f6denen bedel) pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r ve piyasada sert fiyat hareketi beklendi\u011fine i\u015faret eder. Man\u015fet ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak fiyat\u0131n tek bir haberde birka\u00e7 dolar birden iki y\u00f6ne de hareket etmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. <\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z sert hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejilere ilgi art\u0131yor. \u201cUzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir al\u0131m opsiyonu\/call ile bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu\/put birlikte sat\u0131n alma) bu t\u00fcr d\u00f6nemlerin klasik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131d\u0131r. Alternatif olarak, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler al\u0131m opsiyonu almay\u0131 ya da \u201cbull call spread\u201d (maliyeti s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call satmak) kurmay\u0131 tercih edebilir. <\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan talep taraf\u0131 da fiyat\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. \u00c7in\u2019de Mart 2026 imalat PMI verisi 49,8 ile beklentinin hafif alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi), 50\u2019nin alt\u0131ndaysa sekt\u00f6rde daralmaya i\u015faret eder. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00c7in\u2019de zay\u0131flayan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, talep endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Buna ABD\u2019de artan stoklar da eklenince, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015ferse a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryo g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanabilir. <\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik izlenecek ana seviyeler, 97,00 dolar\u0131n \u201cdiren\u00e7\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015fin zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) ve 90,00 dolar\u0131n \u201cpsikolojik destek\u201d (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6nem atfetti\u011fi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerde tutunma g\u00f6r\u00fclebilen seviye) konumunda olmas\u0131d\u0131r. WTI\u2019nin bu seviyelerdeki davran\u0131\u015f\u0131, yeni opsiyon i\u015flemlerinde \u201ckullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131\u201d (strike) se\u00e7imi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli sinyaller verebilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sert hareketin tetikleyicisinin haftal\u0131k stok verilerinden \u00e7ok jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde tansiyon y\u00fckseliyor: WTI 94,5 dolara \u00e7ekilse de haftay\u0131 %7 primle kapat\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskleri fiyat\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, EIA stoklar\u0131 +1,9 mn varil s\u00fcrprizi bask\u0131 kuruyor. Oynakl\u0131k\/opsiyon i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45410"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45410\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}