GBP\/USD, New York seans\u0131nda 1,3448\u2019e geriledikten sonra tepki al\u0131m\u0131yla toparland\u0131 ve g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3467\u2019den tamamlad\u0131. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131r) \u015fimdilik s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. 1,3440 seviyesine do\u011fru bir sarkma olas\u0131; bu seviyenin alt\u0131na ini\u015f ihtimali de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmiyor.<\/p>\n
24 saatlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde paritenin 1,3475\u20131,3530 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi bekleniyordu; ancak g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde bu band\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Diren\u00e7 (fiyat y\u00fckselirken zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviye) 1,3480\u2019de. 1,3510\u2019un \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, 1,3440\u2019a do\u011fru hareketin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
1\u20133 haftal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde paritenin 1,3400\u20131,3600 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, \u00f6nceki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bekleniyordu. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmedeki art\u0131\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olsa da 1,3400 seviyesinin test edilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n, \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7\u201d olarak belirtilen 1,3530 k\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Bu de\u011ferlendirme, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik verilerde ayr\u0131\u015fmayla da destekleniyor. Bu ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131) gerilese de y\u00fcksek seyrederek %3,1\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu durum \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (BoE) temkinli tutuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc: Son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP: tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde ayl\u0131k istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi) raporunda 255 bin net yeni i\u015f eklendi.<\/p>\n
Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma duru\u015fu, piyasada BoE\u2019nin y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi yapabilece\u011fine dair beklentiyle \u00e7eli\u015fiyor. Faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faizleri aras\u0131ndaki makas) ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 sterline g\u00f6re daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev (dayanak varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike: opsiyonun devreye girdi\u011fi fiyat) 1,3400 civar\u0131 veya alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazand\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefleyen) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Alternatif olarak, k\u0131sa kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 1,3530 direncinin \u00fczerine yerle\u015ftirilmi\u015f al\u0131m (call) kredi spreadi satmak (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call ile prim geliri hedeflenen strateji) parite yatay ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 giderse prim (opsiyon fiyat\u0131) geliri elde etmeye yarar. \u0130ma edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) orta seviyede oldu\u011fundan, bu stratejilerin maliyeti g\u00f6rece makul.<\/p>\n
2025 sonlar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da benzer bir tablo g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: Parite 1,3600 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki direnci a\u015fmakta zorlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. O d\u00f6nem \u0130ngiltere b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne dair kal\u0131c\u0131 kayg\u0131lar nedeniyle y\u00fckseli\u015f devam etmemi\u015fti. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f fiyat hareketi, 1,3530 civar\u0131ndaki mevcut direncin g\u00fcc\u00fcne dair g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya<\/a>\u00a0ba\u015flay\u0131n. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin\/dolar New York\u2019ta 1,3448\u2019den toparlansa da bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 1,3480 diren\u00e7, 1,3440-1,3400 riskte. Fed-BoE ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor; putlar ve 1,3530 \u00fcst\u00fc call spreadi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45409"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45409\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}