USD\/JPY, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n **g\u00fcvenli liman talebi** (risk artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n daha \u201cg\u00fcvenli\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fclen varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesi) sayesinde yeniden 160 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131yor. Japon yetkililer, yenin zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak i\u00e7in **piyasaya m\u00fcdahaleye** (devletin d\u00f6viz al\u0131p satarak kuru etkilemesi) haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi.<\/p>\n
OCBC, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) 28 Nisan\u2019da faizi **25 baz puan** (0,25 y\u00fczde puan) art\u0131rarak %1,0\u2019a \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Piyasa ise **\u015fahin sabit tutma** riskini de fiyatl\u0131yor: Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lmadan, daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 mesaj\u0131 verilmesi.<\/p>\n
BoJ faiz art\u0131rmazsa USD\/JPY 160\u2019l\u0131 seviyelere yerle\u015febilir. Bu da Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kuru 155\u2019e do\u011fru geri itmek i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale etme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 da \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131ndaki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu tekrar etti.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY kritik 160 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, 28 Nisan\u2019daki BoJ toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir **olay riski** (tek bir geli\u015fmenin fiyatlarda sert hareket yaratma ihtimali) yarat\u0131yor. Piyasa, beklenen 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f yerine **\u015fahin sabit tutma** olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu beklenti fark\u0131, kurda sert hareket i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor ve **opsiyon** (belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn) stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
**T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn** (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa, \u00f6rne\u011fin d\u00f6viz kuruna ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal enstr\u00fcman) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in kritik nokta, beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesi. USD\/JPY\u2019de 1 haftal\u0131k **\u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite** (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan hesaplanan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k) %15\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da piyasadaki tedirginli\u011fi g\u00f6steriyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, BoJ karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanmak i\u00e7in **straddle** gibi yap\u0131larla \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almay\u0131\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Straddle, ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak kurun sert hareket etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen bir stratejidir.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcdahale \u00f6rne\u011fi i\u00e7in 2024 ilkbahar\u0131na bakmak yeterli. O d\u00f6nemde Japon yetkililer, para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in rekor d\u00fczeyde yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 trilyon yen harcad\u0131 ve USD\/JPY, 160\u2019a yak\u0131n benzer seviyelerden sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnek, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
BoJ faiz art\u0131rmaz ve kur 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, USD\/JPY\u2019yi 155\u2019e do\u011fru zorlamak ama\u00e7l\u0131 m\u00fcdahale ihtimali y\u00fckselir. Bu senaryoda, yenin aniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY **put opsiyonu** (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan sat\u0131m hakk\u0131) almak bir se\u00e7enek olabilir. Tersine, BoJ s\u00fcrpriz bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapar ve dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesi azal\u0131rsa, ayn\u0131 putlar yine kazan\u00e7 getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket riski ise BoJ\u2019un piyasay\u0131 hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratmas\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahalenin gecikmesi ya da beklenenden zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131 halinde s\u00fcrer. Veriler, Japonya\u2019da **\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun** (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %2,5 civar\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini ve bunun merkez bankas\u0131 hedefinin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; bu da ad\u0131m atma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ad\u0131m at\u0131lmamas\u0131, yeni sat\u0131\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cesaretlendirebilir ve 161 \u00fczeri kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 **call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131** (kur y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan al\u0131m hakk\u0131) daha olas\u0131, ancak riskli bir i\u015flem haline getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY yeniden kritik 160 e\u015fi\u011finde: g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131 yen\u2019i eziyor. 28 Nisan BoJ \u201colay riski\u201d b\u00fcy\u00fcyor; \u015fahin sabit tutma fiyatlan\u0131yor. M\u00fcdahale sinyali g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, volatilite %15+, opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45407","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45407","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45407"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45407\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45407"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45407"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45407"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}