USD\/JPY Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimli bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7inde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Avrupa sabah saatlerinde 160,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda yatay bir bantta hareket etti. Parite, \u00fc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r ilk kez haftay\u0131 art\u0131da kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Japon yetkililerin Yen\u2019deki zay\u0131flamay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemler JPY\u2019yi destekledi ve USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurdu. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden ABD-\u0130ran restle\u015fmesi ve Fed\u2019in faiz indirimi beklentilerinin azalmas\u0131 ise ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelmeyen Ulusal T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi) verisiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak BoJ\u2019un (Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha ge\u00e7 faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi de Yen\u2019i zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bu unsurlar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller \u00fcretirken paritenin genel olarak destekli kalmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Mart ortas\u0131ndan bu yana fiyat hareketi, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019dan (\u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama: son g\u00fcnlere daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) gelen tepki sonras\u0131 tan\u0131d\u0131k bir bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kal\u0131rken, geri \u00e7ekilmeler h\u00e2l\u00e2 olas\u0131 al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: 0-100 aras\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekle momentum \u00f6l\u00e7er) 56,79 seviyesindeydi; pozitif b\u00f6lgede ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131mda de\u011fildi. MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama\/Iraksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) hafif negatif kald\u0131; bu da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin var oldu\u011funu ancak s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
159,60 civar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkma 159,00 yak\u0131n\u0131nda al\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirebilir; bant deste\u011fi 158,30 civar\u0131nda. Daha belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lma, fiyat\u0131 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 155,03 seviyesine do\u011fru \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, uzun (al\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc) pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmadan \u00f6nce 160,00 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 i\u015flemler g\u00f6rmeyi tercih edebilir. Teknik analiz, bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re USD\/JPY, kritik 160,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimli bir bekleme s\u00fcrecinde. Parite haftay\u0131 art\u0131da bitirmeye yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de piyasa belirgin \u015fekilde daha yukar\u0131 itmekte isteksiz. Bu da fiyat\u0131n pe\u015finden ko\u015fmak yerine sab\u0131rl\u0131 ve planl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 geni\u015f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor. Mart 2026 ABD enflasyon verisi %3,1 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelerek Fed\u2019in yak\u0131nda faiz indirmeyece\u011fi beklentisini peki\u015ftirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131 Tokyo \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019si (g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemleri d\u0131\u015flayan enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) %1,9 ile zay\u0131f kald\u0131; bu da BoJ\u2019un politikas\u0131n\u0131 sert \u015fekilde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerek\u00e7e anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak ana risk, Japon yetkililerin piyasaya do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahalesi. Bu durum parite 2024 Nisan\u0131 sonunda ayn\u0131 160,00 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Shun’ichi Suzuki bu hafta spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlere y\u00f6nelik yeni uyar\u0131lar yapt\u0131 ve piyasay\u0131 \u201cy\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyde aciliyet\u201d ile izledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda pariteyi do\u011frudan almakla ilgili riski art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yukar\u0131 hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131rken riski opsiyonlarla y\u00f6netmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. 160,00\u2019\u0131n hemen \u00fczerinde bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kat\u0131lma imk\u00e2n\u0131 verirken olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 \u00f6denen primle (opsiyon bedeli) s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Japon yetkililer m\u00fcdahale eder ve parite sert d\u00fc\u015ferse, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk bu nedenle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131r.<\/p>\n
159,00 \u00e7evresindeki desteklerin korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (out-of-the-money put: \u015fu an k\u00e2rda olmayan satma hakk\u0131) satmak bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, tahsil edilen primle gelir yarat\u0131r ve USD\/JPY vade sonuna kadar kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar. Bu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle uyumludur.<\/p>\n
Daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem ise bo\u011fa call spread kullanmakt\u0131r: daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan bir call satmak. Bu, ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ancak olas\u0131 k\u00e2r\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlar. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir s\u0131\u00e7rama yerine daha kontroll\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleyenler i\u00e7in daha uygundur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 160,00 alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; haftay\u0131 art\u0131da kapatmaya yak\u0131n. Fed indirim beklentisi azal\u0131rken dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, BoJ gecikmesi yen\u2019i zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Kritik risk: Japonya m\u00fcdahalesi. K\u0131r\u0131lma i\u00e7in opsiyonlarla risk y\u00f6netimi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45406"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45406\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}