Euro, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmedi ve 0,8675 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. 0,8680 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc 0,8654 dip seviyesinden gelen toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. \u0130ngiltere perakende verileri paritede belirgin hareket yaratmad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ngiltere Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, \u015eubat\u2019taki %0,6 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan Mart\u2019ta %0,7 artt\u0131 ve %0,2 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. Akaryak\u0131t ve otomobil hari\u00e7 \u201c\u00e7ekirdek sat\u0131\u015flar\u201d %0,2 y\u00fckseldi; \u015eubat\u2019ta %0,6 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve veri beklentiyle uyumlu geldi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nc\u00fc (ilk a\u00e7\u0131klanan) \u0130ngiltere i\u015f anketleri, imalat ve hizmetlerde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u201cgirdi maliyetleri\u201d (\u015firketlerin enerji, hammadde ve i\u015f\u00e7ilik gibi \u00fcretim i\u00e7in \u00f6dedi\u011fi maliyetler) kay\u0131tlar\u0131n tutulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu durum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6neme dair belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
GfK T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni endeksi \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Endi\u015feler aras\u0131nda enerji kaynakl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 halinde mortgage (konut kredisi) maliyetlerinin y\u00fckselmesi yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde oda\u011fa Almanya\u2019n\u0131n IFO \u0130\u015f \u0130klimi verisi geldi. Nisan\u2019da enerji maliyetleri nedeniyle zay\u0131flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Jeopolitik riskler de artt\u0131: \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda bir y\u00fck gemisine el konulmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcler yay\u0131mlad\u0131; ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ise su yoluna may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyen herhangi bir gemiyi imha etmekle tehdit etti.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen tabloya benzer bir durum \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor: EUR\/GBP, \u0130ngiltere verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller \u00fcretse de 0,8680 alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn parite 0,8590 civar\u0131nda daha y\u00f6ns\u00fcz seyrediyor; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00e7eli\u015fen ekonomik etkileri tart\u0131yor. Ulusal \u0130statistik Ofisi\u2019nin (ONS) son verisi, Mart 2026\u2019da \u0130ngiltere perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacminin sadece %0,1 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da t\u00fcketicinin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l enerji maliyetleri ve t\u00fcketici k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fine dair endi\u015feler azalsa da tamamen bitmedi. 2025\u2019teki b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji \u015foku geride kalsa da GfK\u2019ya g\u00f6re t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni bu ay -22 seviyesine ancak toparland\u0131; bu seviye h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Mart 2026 itibar\u0131yla \u0130ngiltere enflasyonu %2,9 iken BoE, bu yaz faiz indirimlerinin g\u00fcndemde olabilece\u011fi sinyalini veriyor. Bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemindeki \u201c\u015fahin duru\u015f\u201da (faiz art\u0131rmaya veya y\u00fcksek faizde kalmaya yatk\u0131n duru\u015f) g\u00f6re ters bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
BoE\u2019deki bu y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ile paralel ilerliyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu Mart\u2019ta %2,4\u2019e geriledi\u011fi i\u00e7in ECB\u2019nin de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda \u201cgev\u015femeye\u201d (faiz indirmeye ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131 daha destekleyici h\u00e2le getirmeye) ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu \u201cpolitika yak\u0131nsamas\u0131\u201d, EUR\/GBP\u2019de oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddeti) bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu ortamda bant i\u00e7inde al-sat (range trading) veya opsiyon primi sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (opsiyon satarak prim gelirini hedefleme) stratejileri k\u0131sa vadede uygun olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, merkez bankalar\u0131ndan birinin di\u011ferine g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert bir faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc sinyali vermesi halinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 risklerin yerini, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de s\u00fcren deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel tedarik zinciri ve navlun (ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k) maliyetlerine ili\u015fkin yeni endi\u015feler ald\u0131. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 riskler, enflasyonda ani s\u0131\u00e7rama ihtimalini g\u00fcndemde tutuyor ve faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir. Bu nedenle, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7lar) bir miktar \u201cy\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k\u201d pozisyonu ta\u015f\u0131mak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k ortam\u0131n\u0131 bozabilecek beklenmedik bir \u015foka kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EUR\/GBP\u2019de dikkat: Parite 0,8680 direnci alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc perakende verisi etki yaratmad\u0131. Girdi maliyetleri ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni bask\u0131da; BoE-ECB faiz indirimi yak\u0131nsamas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Jeopolitik riskler s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45405\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}