EUR\/USD, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda zay\u0131f seyrini korudu; 1,1680\u20131,1675 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k iki haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Parite, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ici ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131 bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde ilerleme sa\u011flamad\u0131; ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f de enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015f sergileyece\u011fi beklentisini destekleyerek dolara g\u00fc\u00e7 verdi.<\/p>\n
4 saatlik grafikte fiyat, 200 periyotluk \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren hareketli ortalama) \u00e7evresinde seyretti; son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm n\u00f6tr kald\u0131. Ancak Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc, Mart ay\u0131ndaki dipten ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015fin %38,2 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin (Fibonacci: olas\u0131 destek\/diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgelerini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan oranlar) alt\u0131na inilmesi sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. RSI\u2019nin (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: momentum g\u00f6stergesi; 30\u2019a yakla\u015fmas\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret eder) 32 civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama-Iraksama: trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi) hafif negatif kald\u0131; bu durum, EMA b\u00f6lgesine ra\u011fmen y\u00fckseli\u015f ivmesinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Destek seviyeleri, %50,0 d\u00fczeltme olan 1,1648; ard\u0131ndan 1,1600 ve 1,1532; daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,1445 olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7, 1,1696 (%38,2) seviyesinde; ard\u0131ndan 1,1755 (%23,6) olarak izlendi. Teknik analiz b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131 deste\u011fiyle haz\u0131rland\u0131.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019deki mevcut zay\u0131fl\u0131k, parite 1,0550 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, bilinen bask\u0131lardan kaynaklan\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki (petrol sevkiyat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik deniz ge\u00e7idi) gerilimin yeniden artmas\u0131 enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 canland\u0131r\u0131yor; piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in daha sert ad\u0131mlar ataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm euro i\u00e7in belirgin bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
2026 ilk \u00e7eyrekte \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (\u00e7ekirdek t\u00fcketici enflasyonu: enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %3,1\u2019de \u0131srarla kalmas\u0131, vadeli i\u015flemler piyasalar\u0131nda (faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131: gelecekteki faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan \u00fcr\u00fcnler) Temmuz\u2019a kadar Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019e yak\u0131n fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) daha uzun bir \u201cbeklemede kalma\u201d sinyali veriyor; bu da iki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (faiz ve para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Faiz beklentilerindeki bu fark, parite \u00fczerindeki ana bask\u0131 unsuru.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019ten geriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, benzer bir tablo 2021 sonlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: artan enflasyon ve \u015fahin (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131rmaya daha istekli) Fed ile parite 1,1600\u2019l\u00fc seviyelerden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nem ve 2022\u2019de paritenin 1,00\u2019\u0131n (parite seviyesi) alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131, temel e\u011filimlerin uzun s\u00fcreli bask\u0131 yaratabildi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Tarihsel \u00f6rnek, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn daha olas\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, EUR\/USD put opsiyonu almak (put: belirli bir fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 hedefler) beklenen zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir strateji sunuyor. 1,0500 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma, 1,0400 seviyesinin test edilmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca ay\u0131 put spreadlerini (bear put spread: biri daha y\u00fcksek, di\u011feri daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 iki put ile maliyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) de\u011ferlendirebilir; bu sayede risk netle\u015fir ve \u00f6denen prim (opsiyon maliyeti) azal\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimin beklenmedik \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesi veya ABD enflasyonunun beklentiden zay\u0131f gelmesi, k\u0131sa vadeli bir toparlanma getirebilir. Olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerde ilk \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 olarak 1,0650 b\u00f6lgesi izlenmeli. Ancak ana e\u011filim, anlaml\u0131 toparlanmalar\u0131n yeniden sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma ihtimalinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: EUR\/USD 1,1680 civar\u0131nda zay\u0131f. \u0130ran\/H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi ve petrol art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dolar lehine. Fed\u2019e %75 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131rken ECB beklemede; teknikler 1,1648-1,1600 riskini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45398"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45398\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}