NZD\/USD, 0,5925\u20130,5930 b\u00f6lgesinden ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve ikinci g\u00fcnde de geriledi. Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,5840 civar\u0131nda seyretti; bu seviye, fiyat\u0131n uzun vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fc hakk\u0131nda s\u0131k kullan\u0131lan bir g\u00f6sterge olan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalamaya (SMA: belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki kapan\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n basit ortalamas\u0131) yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin artmas\u0131yla d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin t\u0131kanmas\u0131, dolara olan talebi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran, m\u00fczakerelerin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in ablukas\u0131n\u0131n tamamen kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 talep ederken Trump, may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyen herhangi bir tekneye ate\u015f edilmesi talimat\u0131n\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n
Enerji arz\u0131ndaki aksakl\u0131klar ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutarak enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasalar art\u0131k 2026\u2019da ABD\u2019de yaln\u0131zca bir kez 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi (baz puan: faizin y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 25 baz puan = 0,25 puan) fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm dolar\u0131 desteklerken NZD\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019da enflasyon verileri NZD\u2019deki ek kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Mart 2026 \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %3,1 oldu; bu oran %1\u20133 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n ve %2 orta noktan\u0131n \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD paritesi, 0,5835 civar\u0131ndaki kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 test ederken belirgin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bu teknik deste\u011fin (fiyat\u0131n daha \u00f6nce tutundu\u011fu seviye) net \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, paritede yeni bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. Bu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin (hareketin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n) artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik gerilim WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc (ABD referans ham petrol t\u00fcr\u00fc) son bir ayda %12\u2019den fazla y\u00fckselterek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu durum k\u00fcresel enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken dolar\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (risk y\u00fckselince yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k) \u00f6zelli\u011fini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Benzer bir tablo 2025 sonundaki K\u00f6rfez gerilimlerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, dolara y\u00f6neli\u015f artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) politikas\u0131 beklentilerini de de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. CME FedWatch Tool (Fed faiz kararlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik piyasa olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 vadeli i\u015flemlerden t\u00fcreten g\u00f6sterge) verilerine g\u00f6re piyasa, Haziran 2026\u2019ya kadar faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %25 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu oran bir ay \u00f6nce %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi. ABD\u2019de faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi, di\u011fer para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) da enflasyonla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; son veriler y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,1 ile kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle gecelik endeks swap (OIS: k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentilerini yans\u0131tan swap s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) piyasas\u0131, A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar RBNZ\u2019nin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %40 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. RBNZ\u2019nin bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu (enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 savunan yakla\u015f\u0131m) Kiwi dolara (Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131) destek vererek paritedeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu iki z\u0131t etken nedeniyle, NZD\/USD put opsiyonu almak (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren opsiyon; fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesinden faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir yol sunar. B\u00f6ylece yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar dolar\u0131n bask\u0131n trendinden yararlan\u0131rken, RBNZ\u2019nin \u015fahin politikas\u0131yla gelebilecek ani toparlanmada maksimum zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in opsiyonlar pahalanm\u0131\u015f olsa da ani y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyet arayanlar i\u00e7in \u201cbear put spread\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f put spread\u2019i: bir put al\u0131p daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 ba\u015fka bir put satarak maliyeti azaltma) uygulanabilir bir alternatiftir. Bu strateji, hedeflenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na odaklan\u0131r ve ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseldi\u011fi piyasada giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: NZD\/USD, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimiyle 0,5840\u2019ta 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019y\u0131 test ediyor. K\u0131r\u0131lma yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131 getirebilir; RBNZ\u2019nin %3,1 enflasyonu kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45392","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45392"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45392\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45392"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45392"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45392"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}