Japonya\u2019da g\u0131da ve enerjiyi hari\u00e7 tutan ulusal T\u00dcFE (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi), martta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,4 artt\u0131. Bu oran, \u00f6nceki %2,5 seviyesinden geriledi.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (g\u0131da ve enerji hari\u00e7 enflasyon) %2,4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n (enflasyonu yukar\u0131 iten etkenler) zirveye yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BOJ) faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na (politika faizini y\u00fckseltme) agresif \u015fekilde h\u0131z verme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar azalt\u0131yor. Bunu, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde h\u0131zl\u0131 ve ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini azaltma sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Veriler, 2024\u2019teki politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lenen \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fa (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 beklenti) da ters d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu tablo, \u201cyen carry trade\u201di (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli yenden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek faiz veren para birimlerine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma) yeniden cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD ile faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki makas) geni\u015f kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. \u00d6zellikle yenin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 160 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek zay\u0131fl\u0131k d\u00fczeylerinden biri. Zay\u0131f ya da yatay yen senaryosundan faydalanan stratejiler de\u011ferlendirilebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin dolar\/yen paritesinde \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (mevcut kurun \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131, yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine oynayan opsiyon) satmak.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam Japon hisse senetleri i\u00e7in de destekleyici. Nikkei 225 vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (belli bir tarihte \u00f6nceden belirlenen fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) uzun pozisyonlar (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynayan pozisyon) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Daha yava\u015f faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u015firketlerin bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinin (kredi ve tahvil finansman\u0131ndaki faiz y\u00fck\u00fc) beklenenden daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi anlam\u0131na gelir; bu da k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131n\u0131 (\u015firketin sat\u0131\u015ftan elde etti\u011fi k\u00e2r\u0131n oran\u0131) korur. \u015eirket k\u00e2r marjlar\u0131 son a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7eyrekte ortalama %8 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2025\u2019te piyasalar faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n hisselere etkisi konusunda daha tedirgindi; bu kayg\u0131 azal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Tahvil taraf\u0131nda, enflasyondaki yava\u015flama Japonya Devlet Tahvili (JGB) getirilerinin (tahvil faizi\/ yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n talep etti\u011fi getiri) daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselme ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u015eu s\u0131ralar %1,1 civar\u0131nda olan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirisi, yak\u0131n vadede %1,5\u2019e y\u00f6nelme konusunda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu istikrar, getirinin belirli bir bantta kalaca\u011f\u0131na oynayan t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnleri (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) JGB vadeli i\u015flemlerinde do\u011frudan k\u0131sa pozisyonlara (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynama) k\u0131yasla daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son \u201cShunto\u201d bahar \u00fccret g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri de bu \u00e7er\u00e7eveyi destekliyor: ortalama \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,6 oldu. Bu oran tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve reel \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (enflasyondan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131) destekliyor; ancak 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen %5,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki bu yava\u015flama, merkez bankas\u0131na bir sonraki ad\u0131m \u00f6ncesi izleme alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE martta %2,4\u2019e geriledi; BOJ\u2019un agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor. Yen carry trade yeniden g\u00fcndemde, Nikkei destekleniyor. JGB getirileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45388"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45388\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}