Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Asya i\u015flemlerinde 4.690 dolar civar\u0131na gerileyerek 4.700 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 ve artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) endi\u015fesini y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD ordusu, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Bloomberg\u2019in haberine g\u00f6re, ablukay\u0131 (denizden engelleme) delmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan iki \u0130ran petrol s\u00fcper tankerini durdurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gemilere y\u00f6nelik tehditlerde bulunurken, Washington \u0130ran ticaretine y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Daha sonra ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n (enerji ve ula\u015f\u0131m gibi temel tesisler) \u201cpatlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer, ate\u015fkesi (\u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 durdurma anla\u015fmas\u0131) uzatmay\u0131 kabul etmediklerini belirterek, ABD\u2019yi ablukay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek anla\u015fmay\u0131 ihlal etmekle su\u00e7lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu hafta arz kesintisi (piyasaya daha az petrol gelmesi) endi\u015fesiyle y\u00fckseldi. Ham petrol\u00fcn pahalanmas\u0131 enflasyonu art\u0131rabilir ve faiz indirimi ihtimalini azaltabilir; bu durum faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131 alt\u0131na destek vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2025 ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda, \u00c7in, Polonya, Hindistan ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck etti\u011fi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke merkez bankalar\u0131, rezervleri ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndan uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmek i\u00e7in alt\u0131n varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (People\u2019s Bank of China), Mart ay\u0131nda 5 ton ek al\u0131m yaparak art arda 17 ay s\u00fcren al\u0131mlar\u0131 uzatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
4.700 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 belirleyici olurken, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY: ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) 106,5\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyondan kaynaklan\u0131yor; Mart ay\u0131na ait T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE\/CPI: t\u00fcketicinin \u00f6dedi\u011fi fiyatlar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda beklentinin \u00fczerinde %3,6 geldi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften yararlanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7layan \u201cay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc\u201d (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentili) stratejilere, \u00f6rne\u011fin sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almaya y\u00f6nelebilir.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gerilimi nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kan petrol fiyatlar\u0131 bu enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 besliyor. Bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma ihtimalini art\u0131rarak dolar\u0131 destekliyor ve faiz geliri olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasadaki tepki sert fiyat hareketlerine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi i\u00e7in, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) artarsa \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte alma; fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gidece\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z sert hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler) gibi stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, merkez bankas\u0131 talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olu\u015fturuyor. 2025\u2019te merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n 1.050 tonluk al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu, 2022 ve 2023\u2019teki rekor d\u00fczeydeki al\u0131m d\u00f6neminin devam\u0131 niteli\u011finde. \u00d6zellikle \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 bu birikim, 4.600 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru belirgin geri \u00e7ekilmelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini muhtemel k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc fiziki talebin (ger\u00e7ek alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131) kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelmesi, fiyat\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gergin bir ortam yarat\u0131yor. Benzer bir durum 1980\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, y\u00fcksek faizler k\u00fcresel belirsizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, riskin \u00f6nceden s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin \u201cbull call spread\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satmak; olas\u0131 kazanc\u0131 ve zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) merkez bankas\u0131 deste\u011fiyle olas\u0131 toparlanmadan faydalanmay\u0131, dolar\u0131n daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde ise kayb\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 ama\u00e7lar.<\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik k\u0131r\u0131lma: XAU\/USD 4.700 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 petrol rallisi enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckl\u00fcyor, Fed\u2019i \u015fahinle\u015ftiriyor. Merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131 ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45382\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}