USD\/PHP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas\u2019in (BSP \u2013 Filipinler Merkez Bankas\u0131) daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131) gitmesine ra\u011fmen, artan ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n peso \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131yla 30 Mart\u2019taki 63,8300\u2019l\u00fck rekor seviyenin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. BSP, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bozdu\u011funu belirterek politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak (%0,25) %4,50\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg anketine kat\u0131lan analistlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k yar\u0131s\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f beklerken, kalanlar faizlerin sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Bu karar, BSP\u2019nin Ekim 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu; banka son 20 ayda toplam 225 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimi yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
BSP Ba\u015fkan\u0131 (Guvern\u00f6r) Eli Remolona, karar\u0131n oybirli\u011fiyle al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Remolona, ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n gelebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
BSP, ortalama man\u015fet enflasyonun (genel enflasyon) 2026 ve 2027\u2019de %4,0\u2019l\u00fck \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131n\u0131 a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizi %4,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmesi piyasada etkisiz kal\u0131yor. Brent petrol\u00fcn Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi nedeniyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 112 dolarla iki y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan, piyasa Filipinler\u2019in y\u00fcksek ithalat faturas\u0131na odakland\u0131. Bunun sonucu olarak USD\/PHP paritesi ge\u00e7en aydan kalan 63,83 rekor seviyesini yeniden test ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re merkez bankas\u0131, 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131nda biten agresif faiz indirimlerinin ard\u0131ndan \u015fimdi geriden geliyor. Kendi tahminleri enflasyonun bu y\u0131l ve gelecek y\u0131l %4,0 e\u015fi\u011fini a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da 25 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n para birimini desteklemeye yetmeyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Piyasa, ileride daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ad\u0131m gerekebilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sorun, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131yla daha da b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Son ABD enflasyon verisi beklentilerin \u00fczerinde %3,6 geldi; bu da ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz indirimi ihtimalini geciktirdi. Bu k\u00fcresel ortam, peso gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke para birimlerinin destek bulmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in bu, pesodaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaln\u0131zca yerel bir konu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 politikas\u0131 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u0131\u015f etkenler aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma nedeniyle oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k USD\/PHP opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen dalgalanma) %7,9\u2019a y\u00fckselerek y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sert fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu belirsizlikten fayda sa\u011flayan stratejiler, \u00f6rne\u011fin opsiyon almak, de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
USD\/PHP\u2019de en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n yukar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 64,00 psikolojik e\u015fi\u011finin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Filipinler petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn neredeyse tamam\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini ve pesoyu bask\u0131lamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Daha fazla peso de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131, olas\u0131 zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak pozisyon almak i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu sat\u0131n almay\u0131 daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petroldeki sert y\u00fckseli\u015f pesoyu eziyor: BSP\u2019nin 25 bp faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (%4,50) USD\/PHP\u2019yi 63,83 rekoruna yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, geciken Fed indirimi ve artan oynakl\u0131kla 64,00 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45380"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45380\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}