G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin GSYH\u2019si (Gayri Safi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la: \u00fclke i\u00e7inde \u00fcretilen toplam mal ve hizmet de\u011feri) 1\u00c726\u2019da \u00e7eyreklik bazda %1,7 artt\u0131. Art\u0131\u015fta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00e7ip (yar\u0131 iletken) ihracat\u0131 ve yapay zek\u00e2 (AI: bilgisayarlar\u0131n veriyle \u00f6\u011frenip karar \u00fcretebilmesi) ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar etkili oldu. ING, 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\u0131la g\u00f6re kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) %2,0\u2019den %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2\u00c726\u2019da yava\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Enerji arz\u0131ndaki aksamalar petrokimya ve di\u011fer imalat kollar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkiliyor. H\u00fck\u00fcmet nafta (petrokimyada girdi olarak kullan\u0131lan hafif petrol t\u00fcrevi) i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ici ihracat yasa\u011f\u0131 getirdi. \u015eirketler Orta Do\u011fu d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan petrol ve do\u011fal gaz ithalat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; ancak tam kapasite \u00fcretim h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Aksamalar\u0131n uzamas\u0131, ekonominin yar\u0131 iletkenlere ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle \u00e7ip \u00fcretimini azaltabilir ve yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilir. Ayl\u0131k enflasyonun (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00f6nlemleri sayesinde di\u011fer Asya\u2019daki enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi: t\u00fcketicilerin ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerin ortalama fiyat de\u011fi\u015fimi) nisan ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda en az %0,7 artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bunda enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ve \u201c\u00e7ipflasyon\u201d (\u00e7ip k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131\/maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) etkili. Enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fckselmesi (halk ve piyasan\u0131n gelecekte daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon beklemesi) ve sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131 dengesizlik, politika esnekli\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir.<\/p>\n
2Y26\u2019da (y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131) b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyelin (ekonominin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131r ve enflasyon beklentileri artmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Bank of Korea) faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bask\u0131 artabilir. Makalede metnin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi ve bir edit\u00f6r taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edildi\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verileri, G\u00fcney Kore ekonomisinde belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7ip ihracat\u0131 ve yapay zek\u00e2 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 teknoloji taraf\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken, bu durum teknoloji a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 endekslerde veya belirli yar\u0131 iletken hisselerinde uzun pozisyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m) f\u0131rsatlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan enerji kaynakl\u0131 sorunlar 2. \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi zay\u0131flatabilir. K-\u015feklinde toparlanma (baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken di\u011ferlerinin geride kalmas\u0131) piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) art\u0131rabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar belirsizlikten yararlanan stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin KOSPI 200 endeksi \u00fczerine opsiyon almak. (Opsiyon: belirli bir tarihe kadar, belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme.)<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en kritik unsur, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi. Mart enflasyonu %3,1 seviyesinde kal\u0131rken, nisan i\u00e7in en az %0,7\u2019lik ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f beklentisi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na dair faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu ortam, Kore Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde (tahvil futures: ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) k\u0131sa pozisyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc beklentisi; tahvilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f=faizde art\u0131\u015f) getiri art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma ya da kazan\u00e7 amac\u0131yla daha cazip h\u00e2le getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u201cpara politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (bir \u00fclke faizi art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelirken di\u011ferlerinin sabit kalmas\u0131) d\u00f6viz i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli. 2025\u2019te k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 faizi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sabit tutarken, Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n art\u0131\u015fa yakla\u015fmas\u0131 ve di\u011ferlerinin daha n\u00f6tr kalmas\u0131 Kore wonunun (KRW) g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini destekleyebilir. Daha y\u00fcksek getiri arayan sermaye giri\u015fleri beklentisiyle ABD dolar\u0131 gibi para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 KRW\u2019de uzun pozisyon potansiyeli g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ge\u00e7ici nafta ihracat yasa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli, sekt\u00f6r bazl\u0131 bir i\u015flem alan\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu, naftay\u0131 hammadde olarak kullanan petrokimya ve plastik \u015firketlerini do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Bu sekt\u00f6rlerde marjlar\u0131n (k\u00e2r pay\u0131) daralmas\u0131 ve \u00fcretim kesintileri riski nedeniyle, bu \u015firketlerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00fcney Kore\u2019de 1\u00c726 GSYH %1,7 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; \u00e7ip ihracat\u0131 ve AI yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ING\u2019yi 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini %2,8\u2019e ittti. Ancak enerji \u015foku, \u201c\u00e7ipflasyon\u201d ve olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 riskleri b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45374","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45374\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}