\u0130srail\u2019in N12 News kanal\u0131ndaki haberlere g\u00f6re \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n m\u00fczakere (pazarl\u0131k) ekibinden istifa etti. Man\u015fet, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD seans\u0131nda riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klardan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131) tetikleyerek ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckseltti ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Haber, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda anla\u015fma ihtimalinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Ancak daha sonra baz\u0131 \u0130ranl\u0131 gazeteciler iddiay\u0131 yalanlad\u0131. X\u2019te Mohammad Ghaderi, haberin do\u011fru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Truth Social\u2019da \u201cBenim d\u00fcnyadaki t\u00fcm zaman\u0131m var ama \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yok \u2014 Saat i\u015fliyor!\u201d diye yazd\u0131. Daha \u00f6nce de \u201c\u0130ran liderinin kim oldu\u011funu anlamakta \u00e7ok zorlan\u0131yor!\u201d demi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Mesud Peze\u015fkiyan ise \u0130ran\u2019da \u201csertlik yanl\u0131s\u0131\u201d ya da \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131\u201d ayr\u0131m\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyerek Dini Lider etraf\u0131ndaki birli\u011fe vurgu yapt\u0131. \u015e\u00f6yle dedi: \u201cTek Tanr\u0131, tek millet, tek lider, tek yol; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n zaferi hayattan daha k\u0131ymetli.\u201d<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda belirsizlik, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda (farkl\u0131 para birimlerinin al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tuttu. ABD tipi ham petrol (West Texas Intermediate\/WTI) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 koruyarak 94 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Piyasada belirsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2025\u2019teki geli\u015fmeleri hat\u0131rlatan bir tablo olu\u015fuyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u0130ranl\u0131 bir m\u00fczakereciyle ilgili, k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yalanlanan tek bir man\u015fet WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 94 dolara ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu s\u0131\u00e7rama, enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi sinyaline ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Benzer s\u00f6ylemler \u015fimdi Viyana\u2019da planlanan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u00f6ncesinde yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelirken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemesi gerekiyor. Piyasa zaten gergin; WTI \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 88 dolar civar\u0131nda. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA\u2014ABD\u2019nin resmi enerji veri kurumu) verileri, ge\u00e7en hafta ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 3,1 milyon varillik beklenmedik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (stoklar\u0131n azalmas\u0131) ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da olas\u0131 arz kesintilerine kar\u015f\u0131 tamponu zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecekte teslim edilmek \u00fczere bug\u00fcnden fiyat\u0131 belirlenen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) \u00fczerine k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, olas\u0131 fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yararlanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Bu y\u00f6ntem, man\u015fetler olumsuzla\u015f\u0131rsa y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flar ve s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z zarara maruz b\u0131rakmaz. Haziran vadeli 95 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 WTI al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonun (open interest: kapanmam\u0131\u015f s\u00f6zle\u015fme say\u0131s\u0131) artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da bu beklentinin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, bu jeopolitik risk, geni\u015f hisse portf\u00f6ylerinde de daha temkinli duru\u015f gerektiriyor. Korunma i\u00e7in S&P 500 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6neriliyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX\u2014piyasan\u0131n \u201ckorku g\u00f6stergesi\u201d, yani beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7er) son iki haftada 14\u2019ten 19\u2019un \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Petrolde b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketi bekleyip y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayanlar i\u00e7in uzun strangle stratejisi (ayn\u0131 anda \u201czararda\u201d bir al\u0131m ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; fiyat sert yukar\u0131 ya da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 giderse kazan\u00e7 hedefler) kullan\u0131labilir. WTI opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) %42\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; bu da Viyana toplant\u0131lar\u0131 sonras\u0131 sert hareket beklentisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok man\u015fet piyasay\u0131 sarst\u0131: Galibaf\u2019\u0131n m\u00fczakere ekibinden istifa etti\u011fi iddias\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; WTI 94 dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Yalanlama gelse de jeopolitik risk, opsiyonla korunmay\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45368\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}