USD\/CHF Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc fazla de\u011fi\u015fmedi; iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert dalgalanmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc ve yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 0,7845 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Piyasalar, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki geli\u015fmeler dahil ABD-\u0130ran gerilimini izledi\u011fi i\u00e7in i\u015flemler temkinliydi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen destek buldu. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY\u2014dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 98,80 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 98,67 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Truth Social\u2019da ABD\u2019nin \u201cH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinde tam kontrol\u201d sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131 ve burada may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyen herhangi bir tekneye Donanma\u2019ya \u201cvurup bat\u0131rma\u201d emri verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran anla\u015fma yapana kadar g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n \u201cs\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde kapal\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131. \u00d6nc\u00fc S&P Global \u0130malat PMI (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder) Nisan\u2019da 52,3\u2019ten 54\u2019e y\u00fckselerek 47 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hizmetler PMI ise 49,8\u2019den 51,3\u2019e y\u00fckselerek iki ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk kez yap\u0131lan ba\u015fvurular) 18 Nisan ile biten haftada 214 bine y\u00fckseldi. Bu rakam 212 bin beklentinin \u00fczerinde ve \u00f6nceki 208 binin \u00fcst\u00fcndeydi. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte USD\/CHF, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama; belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyatlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131) 0,7865 civar\u0131ndaki seviyesinin ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 0,7937 civar\u0131ndaki seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. RSI (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi) orta \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda, ADX (trend g\u00fcc\u00fc g\u00f6stergesi) ise 26 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD ve \u0130ran g\u00fc\u00e7leri aras\u0131ndaki mevcut gerilim, USD\/CHF i\u00e7in teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyallerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7erek belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ortam, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda beklenen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility; fiyatlamalara yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda h\u0131zla y\u00fckselebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Benzer bir tablo 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk haftalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Cboe Volatilite Endeksi (VIX; piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi) yakla\u015f\u0131k 20\u2019den 35\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ani bir askeri t\u0131rmanma veya s\u00fcrpriz bir diplomatik ilerleme, d\u00f6viz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda benzer bir s\u0131\u00e7ramay\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Mevcut dalgal\u0131 seyir, daha net bir hareket \u00f6ncesi sakin d\u00f6nem olabilir.<\/p>\n
K\u0131r\u0131lma bekleyenler i\u00e7in opsiyonlarla long straddle veya strangle (straddle: ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak; strangle: farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m-sat\u0131m opsiyonunu birlikte almak) almak, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket i\u00e7in daha dengeli bir pozisyonlama olabilir. Rehber olarak hareketli ortalamalar kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 0,7850 civar\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 iki y\u00f6nde de hareketi yakalayabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, jeopolitik sonuca yanl\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nde bahis yapma riskini azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ABD verileri, y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almay\u0131 daha da zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in mevcut i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hedge (korunma; riski dengelemek i\u00e7in kar\u015f\u0131 i\u015flem a\u00e7ma) kritik. \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n 47 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 54\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, dolar\u0131 destekleyen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ekonomi sinyali verirken; i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 214 bine y\u00fckselmesi temkinli olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. Bu z\u0131t sinyaller, spot piyasada (anl\u0131k al\u0131m-sat\u0131m piyasas\u0131) net uzun ya da net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 \u015fu anda daha riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Klasik bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d \u00e7eki\u015fmesi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; hem ABD Dolar\u0131 hem \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 sermaye \u00e7ekmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor ve bu da paritede net y\u00f6n olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engelliyor. Gerilim b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fim olmadan s\u00fcrerse, parite bant i\u00e7inde (range-bound; belirli destek-diren\u00e7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda) kalabilir. Bu senaryoda, iron condor (ayn\u0131 vadede d\u00f6rt opsiyonla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli \u201cbant\u201d stratejisi; d\u0131\u015ftaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 son zirve\/diplerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda se\u00e7ilir) gibi y\u00f6ntemlerle opsiyon primi satmak (prim: opsiyonun pe\u015fin bedeli) karars\u0131zl\u0131ktan gelir \u00fcretebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi USD\/CHF\u2019yi kilitledi: 0,7845\u2019te sert dalga, net y\u00f6n yok. Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k ABD verileri dolar\u0131 desteklerken g\u00fcvenli liman yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Opsiyonda straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45360","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45360","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45360"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45360\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45360"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45360"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45360"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}