USD\/JPY Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,45 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermedi ve art arda \u00fc\u00e7 y\u00fckseli\u015f seans\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan son zirvelere yak\u0131n kald\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131 talebi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki jeopolitik gerilimlerin enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131yla destek buldu.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, ABD\u2019de enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) bask\u0131s\u0131na dair beklentileri art\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasalar, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimine gitme ihtimalini azaltt\u0131; y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru faizlerin sabit kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD verileri de b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin korundu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. S&P Global PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi; imalat ve hizmetlerde faaliyet art\u0131\u015f\u0131\/azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren anket verisi) sonu\u00e7lar\u0131, haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131nda (ilk ba\u015fvurular) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen imalat ve hizmetlerde beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithal enerjiye y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. BoJ\u2019un (Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri \u00f6telenirken, piyasalar bir sonraki toplant\u0131da de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyor ve olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n daha ilerisine fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Artan enerji maliyetleri, Japonya\u2019da ithal enflasyon (d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan al\u0131nan \u00fcr\u00fcn\/enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7 fiyatlara yans\u0131mas\u0131) endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Japonya\u2019da i\u00e7 enflasyon k\u00fcresel e\u011filimlere k\u0131yasla g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 gibi ad\u0131mlar) daha yava\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n
Yetkililer, yen hareketlerini yak\u0131ndan izlediklerini de belirtti. Bu s\u00f6ylem, 160 seviyesinde temkin yarat\u0131yor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale (merkez bankas\u0131\/hazine taraf\u0131ndan kurda hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in piyasaya do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz al\u0131m-sat\u0131m\u0131) riski 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde sert y\u00fckseli\u015fleri yava\u015flatabilir.<\/p>\n
Temel tablo de\u011fi\u015fmedi: \u015eahin Fed (enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 daha s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f, faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) ile g\u00fcvercin BoJ (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda temkinli, daha gev\u015fek duru\u015f) aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. CME FedWatch Tool (Fed faiz kararlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131ndan olas\u0131l\u0131k \u00fcreten g\u00f6sterge) piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek boyunca faizi sabit tutma ihtimalini %85\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc faiz fark\u0131, dolar\/yen paritesinde dolar lehine pozisyonlar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler Fed\u2019e duru\u015funu korumada alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Mart ay\u0131 S&P Global Hizmet PMI verisi 54,8 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi; bu seviye hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde belirgin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k s\u00fcrerken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilim Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerini (gelecekteki bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu durum enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131rarak Fed\u2019in temkinli kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomi ve kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon (kolay d\u00fc\u015fmeyen fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) ortam\u0131 dolar i\u00e7in destekleyici.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeyi y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 daha hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n BoJ\u2019un h\u0131zl\u0131 ad\u0131m atma alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Japonya\u2019da son \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve taze g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) %2,2 ile \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seviyede. Bu nedenle yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 zorlayacak i\u00e7 bask\u0131 zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor. Bu tablo, yenin y\u00fcksek getirili (faizi daha y\u00fcksek) dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalma riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131nda (opsiyon, vadeli i\u015flem gibi fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler) bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, USD\/JPY\u2019de kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanan stratejilere i\u015faret ediyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 161,00 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (call; kur y\u00fckselirse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131. Ancak 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131nken resmi m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani ters hareket riski y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle pozisyonlar\u0131 bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread; daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak hem k\u00e2r\u0131 hem zarar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan yap\u0131) \u015feklinde kurmak, m\u00fcdahalenin tetikleyebilece\u011fi sert oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatilite; fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta hareket etmesi) daha kontroll\u00fc y\u00f6netir.<\/p>\n
2024 bahar\u0131ndaki sert geri \u00e7ekilmeler unutulmamal\u0131. Yen ilk kez 160 seviyesini a\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra Japon yetkililerin para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in tahmini 9,8 trilyon yen harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilmi\u015fti. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rnekler, bu t\u00fcr m\u00fcdahalelerin pariteyi saatler i\u00e7inde 3 ila 5 yen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebildi\u011fini ve kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 (bor\u00e7 kullan\u0131larak b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fclen) pozisyonlar\u0131 h\u0131zla zarara sokabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle 160 \u00fczerinde do\u011frudan uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak y\u00fcksek riskli; riskin en ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 159,45\u2019te sakin: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131, dolar talebi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. \u015eahin Fed\u2013g\u00fcvercin BoJ ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi desteklerken 160 \u00fcst\u00fcnde m\u00fcdahale riski i\u015flemleri temkinli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45359"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45359\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}