ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flay\u0131nca alt\u0131n, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 4.684 dolardan yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.730 dolara y\u00fckseldi. Dolar Endeksi, 98,80\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 98,57 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon endi\u015feleri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gerilim artarken devam etti. B\u00f6lgede deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, ABD Donanmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu iki tarafl\u0131 bir engelle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin bo\u011faz \u00fczerinde \u201ctam kontrol\u201d sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve Donanma\u2019ya \u201cH\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyen herhangi bir tekneyi vurun\u201d talimat\u0131 verdi.<\/p>\n
Washington Post, Pentagon de\u011ferlendirmesine dayanarak, deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 tamamen temizlemenin alt\u0131 aya kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini yazd\u0131. Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k \u015firketleri ve Tasnim\u2019e g\u00f6re, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 (IRGC: \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri-g\u00fcvenlik g\u00fcc\u00fc) \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc iki gemiye el koydu.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu durum, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131na (kupon\/faiz \u00f6demeyen varl\u0131k) talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. Piyasalar, \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin resmen kabul etmedi\u011fi ate\u015fkes uzatmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, k\u0131sa vadede ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131na ikna olmu\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
ABD verilerinde, ilk i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 214 bin geldi; beklenti 212 bin, \u00f6nceki 208 bindi. S&P Global \u0130malat PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret eder) 52,3\u2019ten 54\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 47 ay\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckseldi. Hizmetler PMI ise 49,8\u2019den 51,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
4 saatlik grafikte XAU\/USD (ons alt\u0131n\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) 20 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama: belirli d\u00f6nem fiyat ortalamas\u0131) yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.756 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131nda. RSI (14) (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi: 0-100 aras\u0131 momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 41 civar\u0131nda, ATR (14) (Ortalama Ger\u00e7ek Aral\u0131k: fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc) yakla\u015f\u0131k 38. Destek 4.677, diren\u00e7 4.834 dolar civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon ortam\u0131nda, alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201ckoruma arac\u0131\u201d (hedge: riskten korunma) rol\u00fc, faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinin g\u00f6lgesinde kal\u0131yor. Mart 2026 T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) raporunda y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n %4,1 olmas\u0131, fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) istedi\u011fi kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar tahvilden (faiz getiren bor\u00e7lanma arac\u0131) daha iyi getiri alabilirken, faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha maliyetli hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun ana nedeni, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k aksakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131. WTI ham petrol\u00fc (ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) 115 dolar\/varil \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, enerji maliyetleri d\u00fcnya genelinde mal ve hizmet fiyatlar\u0131na do\u011frudan yans\u0131yor. Bu tablonun h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi beklenmedi\u011fi i\u00e7in, enflasyon merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7in temel g\u00fcndem olmaya devam edebilir.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcnden geriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2025 boyunca yap\u0131lan sert faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n (rate hikes: politika faizinin y\u00fckseltilmesi) bu enerji krizine tepki oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu ad\u0131mlar, Fed\u2019in faiz indirimini (rate cuts) de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hareket alan\u0131na sahip oldu\u011fu mevcut ortam\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Fed yetkililerinin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 da \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu (hawkish: enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 e\u011filimi) destekliyor; \u00f6ncelik enflasyonla m\u00fccadele.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in (derivatives: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnler), bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri (futures: ileri tarihli al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi) veya ilgili ETF\u2019ler (borsada i\u015flem g\u00f6ren fon) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, 4.677 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir sarkmadan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle faydalanma y\u00f6ntemi olabilir. 4.834 direncinin \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla \u201ccall spread\u201d (al\u0131m opsiyonu yay\u0131lmas\u0131: bir al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir al\u0131m opsiyonu satma) satmak da, prim geliri (premium: opsiyon fiyat\u0131) toplayarak y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcren jeopolitik gerilim, fiyat d\u00fc\u015fse bile alt\u0131n oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (volatility: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Cboe Alt\u0131n Volatilite Endeksi (GVZ: alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131ndan t\u00fcretilen beklenen oynakl\u0131k g\u00f6stergesi) 20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor; bu seviye, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasa \u00e7alkant\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana kal\u0131c\u0131 \u015fekilde pek g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu durum, \u201cima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131ndan faydalanan stratejileri, \u00f6rne\u011fin k\u0131sa strangle veya straddle\u2019\u0131 (ayn\u0131 vadede farkl\u0131\/kesin kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 opsiyon kombinasyonlar\u0131; fiyat\u0131n belirli aral\u0131kta kalmas\u0131na veya sert hareketine g\u00f6re k\u00e2r\/zarar profili olu\u015fturur) belirli bir kilit seviye etraf\u0131nda daha cazip hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir bask\u0131 unsuru olmaya devam ediyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e, dolar cinsinden alt\u0131n yabanc\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha pahal\u0131 hale geliyor. Fed s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 (tight monetary policy: y\u00fcksek faiz ve likiditeyi k\u0131sma) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, dolar\u0131n destekli kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131. \u201cPair trade\u201d (e\u015fle\u015ftirilmi\u015f i\u015flem: bir varl\u0131kta uzun, di\u011ferinde k\u0131sa pozisyonla g\u00f6reli hareketten faydalanma) kapsam\u0131nda Dolar Endeksi vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun, alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak, bu makro e\u011filimi de\u011ferlendirme yolu olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla alt\u0131n 4.684\u2019ten 4.730\u2019a toparland\u0131; ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi ve y\u00fcksek petrol enflasyonu canl\u0131 tutuyor. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu alt\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lar; 4.677 destek, 4.834 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45354"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45354\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}