EUR\/USD, erken saatlerdeki kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi. ABD\u2019den gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc verilere ve ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi nedeniyle temkinli risk alg\u0131s\u0131na ra\u011fmen ABD Dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. Parite 1,1679\u2019u g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,1714 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (Dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011ferini \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 98,80 zirvesinin ard\u0131ndan 98,57 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de faaliyet verileri Nisan\u2019da iyile\u015fti. **S&P Global \u0130malat PMI** (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcme, alt\u0131 daralma anlam\u0131na gelir) 52,3\u2019ten 54\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 47 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. **Hizmet PMI** (hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ayn\u0131 y\u00f6ntemle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen g\u00f6stergesi) 49,8\u2019den 51,3\u2019e y\u00fckselerek iki ay\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Her iki veri de beklentilerin \u00fczerinde geldi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de **haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131** 18 Nisan haftas\u0131nda 214 bine y\u00fckseldi. Beklenti 212 bin, \u00f6nceki veri 208 bindi. PMI verileri sonras\u0131 Dolar kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctemedi; fiyat hareketinin daha \u00e7ok **teknik** (haberlerden ziyade grafik seviyeleri ve i\u015flem ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n etkili oldu\u011fu) oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Gerilim, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 oda\u011f\u0131nda piyasalar\u0131 etkilemeye devam etti. Donald Trump, ABD\u2019nin bo\u011faz \u00fczerinde \u201ctam kontrol\u201d sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131 ve Donanmaya \u201cH\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyen herhangi bir tekneyi vurma\u201d emri verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran anla\u015fma yapana kadar b\u00f6lgenin \u201cs\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde kapal\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu ifade etti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ise deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 talebini korudu ve bunu ate\u015fkes ihlali olarak niteledi. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, ate\u015fkesin ihlal edildi\u011fi iddialar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cimk\u00e2ns\u0131z\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ifte abluka ve arz kesintisi (petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131nda aksama) riskiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek kald\u0131, enflasyon riskleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasalar, ECB\u2019nin (Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fini fiyatlarken, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019in bu d\u00f6nemine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde, EUR\/USD\u2019nin yo\u011fun jeopolitik gerilim alt\u0131nda 1,1700 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck. Bug\u00fcn ise parite 1,0750 civar\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi de bu g\u00fcc\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131yor; ge\u00e7en y\u0131l izlenen 98,50\u2019ler yerine 105,80 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019te H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sert ABD-\u0130ran restle\u015fmesi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonundaki diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan hafiflemi\u015f durumda. Bu gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, enerji piyasalar\u0131ndaki **risk primini** (belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyatlara eklenen ekstra pay) azaltt\u0131. **WTI ham petrol** (ABD tipi ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 82 dolar civar\u0131nda dengelendi; bu, arz kesintisi korkular\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131da tuttu\u011fu d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ABD imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 47 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 54\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. Nisan 2026 i\u00e7in en son S&P Global \u0130malat PMI 51,9\u2019a gerilese de h\u00e2l\u00e2 sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn rahat bi\u00e7imde b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 ama kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ekonomik zemine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasa bak\u0131\u015f\u0131 2025\u2019e k\u0131yasla tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. O d\u00f6nemde ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi, Fed\u2019in ise sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 fiyatlan\u0131yordu. \u015eimdi Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fumas\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ECB\u2019nin Haziran\u2019a kadar faiz indirece\u011fine; Fed\u2019in ise daha sonra ad\u0131m ataca\u011f\u0131na bahis yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu **politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131** (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve daha zay\u0131f euro beklentisini destekliyor. EUR\/USD **put opsiyonu** (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir) almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi halinde potansiyel getiri sunarken riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutabilir. **Out-of-the-money call opsiyonu satmak** (mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m hakk\u0131n\u0131 satmak; parite y\u00fckselmezse prim geliri elde etme) da parite bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa prim toplamak i\u00e7in bir di\u011fer y\u00f6ntemdir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalarda soru net: Dolar neden geriliyor? G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD PMI\u2019lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen EUR\/USD 1,1714\u2019e toparland\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Bug\u00fcn ise DXY 105,80, EUR\/USD 1,0750: faiz ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45352"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45352\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}