Nomura, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 30 Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131nda mevduat faizini (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttu\u011fu gecelik paraya verilen faiz) %2,00\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Kurum, faizin 2027\u2019nin 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar da %2,00\u2019de kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 \u015fokun ard\u0131ndan politikan\u0131n \u201cveriye ba\u011fl\u0131\u201d (kararlar\u0131n gelen ekonomik verilere g\u00f6re al\u0131nmas\u0131) kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca g\u00f6stergeler Brent ham petrol fiyat\u0131, enflasyon beklentileri (hanehalk\u0131 ve piyasan\u0131n gelecekte fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc) ve \u00fccret dinamikleri (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131 ve kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131).<\/p>\n
Tahmin, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda bir \u015fok yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131, ancak Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisi \u00fczerinde orta vadede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 etki b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. ECB\u2019nin, hemen tepki vermek yerine yeni verilerde kan\u0131t g\u00f6rmeyi tercih etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Nomura, olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 petrol fiyat\u0131na ba\u011flayan bir ko\u015ful koyuyor. Brent, ECB\u2019nin haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rsa kurum, haziranda 25 baz puan (0,25 puan) ve eyl\u00fclde bir 25 baz puan daha art\u0131\u015f bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in 2022\u2019deki gibi kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon i\u015faretleri veya enflasyon beklentilerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekecek. Nomura\u2019ya g\u00f6re ECB\u2019nin \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi en erken toplant\u0131 haziran.<\/p>\n
Brent, son jeopolitik gerilimle birlikte dalgalan\u0131rken son d\u00f6nemde varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 98 dolar seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu seviye 95 dolarl\u0131k kritik e\u015fi\u011fin \u00fczerinde. Buna ek olarak, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde nisan ay\u0131 \u201c\u00f6nc\u00fc\u201d enflasyon (ay tamamlanmadan a\u00e7\u0131klanan h\u0131zl\u0131 tahmin) %2,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve ilk \u00e7eyrekte \u201cm\u00fczakere edilmi\u015f \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131\u201d (toplu s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerle belirlenen \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131) %4,5 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri faiz, kur ya da emtia gibi ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu durum, faizlerde \u201coynakl\u0131k\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f aral\u0131kta de\u011fi\u015fmesi) \u00fczerinden f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n etkisiz ge\u00e7mesi beklenirken, haziran ve eyl\u00fcl Euribor vadeli kontratlar\u0131na (Euro B\u00f6lgesi k\u0131sa vadeli faiz beklentisini yans\u0131tan vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fme) ba\u011fl\u0131 opsiyonlar (belirli bir tarihe kadar \u00f6nceden belirlenmi\u015f fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeterince yans\u0131tm\u0131yorsa yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Kurum, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ay enerji ve enflasyon verileri izlenirken daha y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Kurum ayr\u0131ca \u201ce\u011fri dikle\u015fmesi\u201d i\u015flemlerine bak\u0131yor: Bu stratejide k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerin uzun vadelilere g\u00f6re daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesine pozisyon al\u0131n\u0131r (yani k\u0131sa vadeli getiriler daha \u00e7ok artar). 2022\u2019deki enerji \u015foku hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131rken, ECB Y\u00f6netim Konseyi\u2019nin (faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 alan kurul) enflasyonun beklentilere \u201cyerle\u015fti\u011fine\u201d (kamu ve piyasan\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek enflasyonu normal g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131) dair i\u015faretlere kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok hassas olaca\u011f\u0131 vurgulan\u0131yor. Bu \u00f6rnek, petrol fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmezse ECB\u2019nin piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha kararl\u0131 ad\u0131m atabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde kal\u0131rsa ECB s\u00fcrpriz yapabilir. Nomura, 30 Nisan\u2019da faizin %2\u2019de kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2027\u2019ye dek sabit seyredebilece\u011fini; haziran-eyl\u00fclde olas\u0131 50 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45349","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45349","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45349"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45349\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45349"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45349"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45349"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}