ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verileri, 17 Nisan\u2019da biten haftada do\u011fal gaz depolar\u0131nda 103 milyar fit k\u00fcp art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Beklenti 96 milyar fit k\u00fcpt\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen art\u0131\u015f, beklentinin 7 milyar fit k\u00fcp \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu, piyasadaki tahmine g\u00f6re haftal\u0131k stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Do\u011fal gaza 103 milyar fit k\u00fcp (Bcf) eklenmesi, 96 Bcf\u2019lik beklentinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Bu, piyasada arz\u0131n (piyasaya gelen gaz miktar\u0131n\u0131n) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu t\u00fcr veri genelde \u201cay\u0131 piyasas\u0131\u201d (fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eken) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr ve en yak\u0131n vadeli vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinde (front-month futures: vadesi en yak\u0131n kontrat) k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki seanslarda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck destek seviyelerinin (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferken tutunabilece\u011fi seviyeler) test edilmesi g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu haftaki art\u0131\u015f, nisan ay\u0131n\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n (genelde 60 Bcf civar\u0131) belirgin \u00fczerinde. Buna g\u00f6re depolardaki toplam kullan\u0131labilir gaz (working gas: piyasaya verilebilen depolama gaz\u0131) 2.410 Bcf\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu da tarihsel ortalamaya g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k %35\u2019lik fazla anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u201cyedek pay\u201d (cushion: depoda fiyatlar\u0131 bask\u0131layan rahat stok) yaz aylar\u0131na girerken fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131 potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
LNG ihracat tesislerinden (LNG: s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep gelse bile, yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretimin y\u00fcksek seyretmesi arz\u0131 art\u0131rmaya devam ediyor. Bu y\u0131l belirleyici unsur, s\u00fcregelen arz fazlas\u0131 (glut: piyasada sat\u0131lmay\u0131 bekleyen fazla mal) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (derivatives: de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentiyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Haziran ve temmuz kontratlar\u0131nda \u201ccall opsiyonu spread\u201d sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (call spread: ayn\u0131 vadede iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu ile kurulan, primi toplayarak yatay\/a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 piyasadan yararlanan yap\u0131) yatay bantta (range-bound: dar aral\u0131kta) hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Ayr\u0131ca \u201cput\u201d almak (put: fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden kazand\u0131ran sat\u0131m opsiyonu) ya da put spread kurmak (iki put ile risk\/getiri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yap\u0131) fiyat\u0131n daha da gerilemesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Veri, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131sa s\u00fcr\u00fcp sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu rapor, k\u0131sa vadede oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (volatilite: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f dalgalanmas\u0131) azaltabilir. Bu da \u201cprim satmay\u0131\u201d (premium selling: opsiyon satarak prim geliri elde etme) daha cazip k\u0131lar. Yine de talebi art\u0131rabilecek erken yaz s\u0131caklar\u0131 i\u00e7in hava tahminleri izlenmeli. Ancak stok fazlas\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde azalmad\u0131k\u00e7a, fiyatlarda bask\u0131n y\u00f6n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 kalmaya devam edebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
EIA verisi s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131: Do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131 haftal\u0131k 103 Bcf artt\u0131, beklenti 96 Bcf. Arz fazlas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek stok tamponu front-month\u2019ta bask\u0131 yarat\u0131p d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, opsiyonlarda prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45346","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45346"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45346\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45346"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45346"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45346"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}