S&P Global, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Nisan ay\u0131 \u201c\u00f6nc\u00fc\u201d (ay\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinden al\u0131nan veriye dayanan) Bile\u015fik PMI verisini yay\u0131mlad\u0131. Endeks Mart\u2019taki 50,3\u2019ten 52\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Rapora g\u00f6re Mart\u2019ta neredeyse durma noktas\u0131na gelen genel i\u015f faaliyeti b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, Nisan\u2019da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa h\u0131zland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130malat \u00fcretimi toparland\u0131. \u0130malat PMI 52,3\u2019ten 54\u2019e y\u00fckselerek 52,5 beklentisinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hizmetler PMI ise 49,8\u2019den 51,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak 50,0 tahminini a\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00d6nceki tahminler, \u0130malat PMI\u2019n\u0131n 52,3\u2019ten 52,5\u2019e, Hizmetler PMI\u2019n\u0131n ise 49,8\u2019den sonra 50,0\u2019a y\u00fckselece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyordu. 50,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki de\u011ferler daralma (faaliyette k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme) anlam\u0131na gelir. Mart Bile\u015fik PMI 50,3 seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Veri \u00f6ncesinde EUR\/USD paritesi %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,1680 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Parite 1,1666\u2019daki %38,2 Fibonacci seviyesinin (fiyatta olas\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\/destek-direnci \u00f6l\u00e7mekte kullan\u0131lan teknik seviye) \u00fczerinde, 1,1689\u2019daki 20 periyotluk EMA\u2019n\u0131n (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren trend g\u00f6stergesi) ise alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. RSI 50,2 seviyesindeydi (RSI: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge; 50 civar\u0131 n\u00f6tr kabul edilir). Diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 1,1689, 1,1745, 1,1825, 1,1938 ve 1,2082; destek seviyeleri 1,1666, 1,1567 ve 1,1408 olarak izlendi.<\/p>\n
Bile\u015fik PMI, imalat ve hizmetlerde ABD \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r faaliyetini \u00f6l\u00e7en, her ay yap\u0131lan anketlere dayal\u0131 bir endekstir; 0-100 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndad\u0131r. 50,0 \u201cde\u011fi\u015fim yok\u201d anlam\u0131na gelir. Endeks, GSYH (ekonominin toplam \u00fcretimi), sanayi \u00fcretimi, istihdam ve enflasyondaki olas\u0131 y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimlerini \u00f6nceden g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI verisi beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi. Bu, Mart\u2019taki yava\u015flaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan i\u015f faaliyetinde toparlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k, ABD ekonomisinin son jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin etkisini piyasan\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha iyi sindirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bile\u015fik endeksin 52\u2019de olmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve enflasyonu y\u00fcksek tutarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini geciktirebilece\u011fini ima ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bunu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu bir sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekir. Beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) h\u00e2l\u00e2 %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son T\u00dcFE raporuyla birlikte, Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma ihtimalini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu durum, dolar lehine pozisyonlar\u0131 destekleyebilir; \u00f6rne\u011fin USD a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 paritelerde al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon (belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) tercih edilebilir. Di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131yla \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (faiz patikalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131) da artabilir.<\/p>\n
Hisse endeksi i\u015flemcileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu haber, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131rabilecek bir unsur. Ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131 i\u00e7in olumlu olsa da, faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 hisse de\u011ferlemelerini (\u015firketlerin piyasa de\u011ferinin pahal\u0131\/ucuz g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi) bask\u0131layabilir; 2025\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen tablo buna \u00f6rnekti. Bu nedenle dalgalanmadan faydalanan veya dalgalanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan stratejiler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin VIX\u2019te (piyasa oynakl\u0131k endeksi) al\u0131m opsiyonu veya S&P 500 pozisyonlar\u0131nda \u201ccollar\u201d (ayn\u0131 anda al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu ile bant i\u00e7inde koruma sa\u011flayan yap\u0131) kurulmas\u0131 daha cazip hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda bu veri, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde faiz indirimi beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri (Fed\u2019in politika faizine ili\u015fkin piyasa beklentisini yans\u0131tan kontratlar) incelendi\u011finde, bu rapor sonras\u0131 yaz aylar\u0131nda indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in gev\u015feme (faiz indirme) takvimini 2026 sonuna hatta 2027\u2019ye \u00f6telemesi ihtimaline g\u00f6re pozisyon almak isteyenler, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sat\u0131\u015f gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak raporda hizmetler taraf\u0131nda zay\u0131f talep ve \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\u201d b\u00fcy\u00fcme vurgusu da var. Bu, toparlanman\u0131n her alana yay\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyallerle benzer. Bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm g\u00fc\u00e7lense de, olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta gibi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan hak) bulundurmak temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD\u2019de Nisan \u00f6nc\u00fc PMI s\u00fcrprizi: Bile\u015fik 52\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; imalat 54, hizmet 51,3. B\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrerken enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 Fed indirimlerini \u00f6teleyebilir; dolar desteklenir, hisse\/volatilite ve faiz piyasas\u0131nda dalga beklenir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45342"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45342\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}