Norve\u00e7 kronu (NOK), nisan ay\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi; ABD dolar\u0131 (USD) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %4,2 ve euro (EUR) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %2,9 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Son seansta y\u00fckseli\u015f h\u0131zland\u0131. Hareket, ABD hisse senetlerinin (borsadaki \u015firket paylar\u0131) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla desteklendi.<\/p>\n
ING, bu ay EUR\/NOK i\u00e7in 10,80\u201310,85 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklenen i\u015flem band\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu; ancak art\u0131k paritede (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 fiyat\u0131) daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n
Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n (Norve\u00e7 Merkez Bankas\u0131) 7 May\u0131s\u2019ta faizi 25 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Baz puan, faiz oranlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri olan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcd\u00fcr; 25 baz puan = 0,25 puan. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ise 19 baz puan art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha ihtimali var; banka, may\u0131sta daha fazla s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma (para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutarak talebi ve enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlama) se\u00e7ene\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k b\u0131rakabilir.<\/p>\n
Nisan 2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, EUR\/NOK i\u00e7in \u00f6nce 10,80 hedeflenmi\u015f, ard\u0131ndan parite daha da hareket etmi\u015fti. Bug\u00fcn EUR\/NOK, kron a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha zay\u0131f seviyede, 11,60 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Tarih tekrar ederse paritede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f potansiyeli daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olabilir. Bu da kal\u0131c\u0131 bir risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bu kez daha sert bir d\u00fczeltmeyi (h\u0131zl\u0131 ve belirgin geri \u00e7ekilme) tetikleyebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ana unsur Norges Bank. Bankan\u0131n may\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini %4,50 gibi s\u0131k\u0131 (kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131ran) seviyede tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 faiz indirimi sinyali verirken Norve\u00e7\u2019in farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde kalmas\u0131 \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d (\u00fclkelerin para politikas\u0131n\u0131n birbirinden ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131) yarat\u0131yor. Norve\u00e7\u2019te \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) h\u00e2l\u00e2 %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011finden, bankan\u0131n daha yumu\u015fak bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in nedeni az. Bu durum, getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan (faiz\/ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi) NOK\u2019u cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda kronun g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. H\u0131zl\u0131 hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle EUR\/NOK\u2019ta sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) ya da NOK\u2019ta al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) al\u0131nmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Opsiyon, belirli bir tarihe kadar hak veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmedir; bu y\u00f6ntem, olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kron y\u00fckseli\u015fine kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flarken azami riskin (en fazla kayb\u0131n) ba\u015ftan s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
NOK\u2019ta ralli s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Nisan\u2019da USD\u2019ye %4,2, EUR\u2019ya %2,9 prim. Petrol ve risk i\u015ftah\u0131 destekliyor. ING EUR\/NOK\u2019ta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; Norges Bank\u2019\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu kronu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Opsiyonlarla korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45338","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45338"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45338\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45338"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}