GBP\/JPY Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Japon yetkililerin \u201cm\u00fcdahale\u201d (kur hareketine do\u011frudan al\u0131m-sat\u0131mla m\u00fcdahale) uyar\u0131lar\u0131yla Yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, USD\/JPY 160,00 seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yaz\u0131 haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken GBP\/JPY 215,27 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 215,74 zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinin \u201cher seferinde etkisi oldu\u011funu\u201d s\u00f6yledi ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u201cd\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinde eli serbest\u201d oldu\u011funu belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca ABD ve Japonya\u2019daki yetkililerin d\u00f6viz konusunda yak\u0131n temas halinde oldu\u011funu ekledi.<\/p>\n
GBP\/JPY\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki tedarik (arz) sorunlar\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Japonya enerjide ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in petrol\u00fcn pahalanmas\u0131 Yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bo\u011faz, ABD Donanmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir abluka alt\u0131nda; gerilim art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Donanma\u2019ya \u201cH\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015feyen her tekneyi vurma\u201d talimat\u0131 verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Washington Post, Pentagon de\u011ferlendirmesine dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde, may\u0131n temizlemenin alt\u0131 aya kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte GBP\/JPY, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n (basit hareketli ortalama; fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131) \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. RSI 62 (g\u00f6reli g\u00fc\u00e7 endeksi; momentum\/g\u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6l\u00e7er) ve MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde (trend ve momentum g\u00f6stergesi). Destek 213,50\u2019de, ard\u0131ndan 212,00\u2013211,50 band\u0131nda; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 206,25\u2019te.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni, kur m\u00fcdahalesi endi\u015feleriyle de\u011fer kazan\u0131yor. Bu tablo, USD\/JPY\u2019nin daha \u00f6nce 160\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle GBP\/JPY\u2019de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme var; genel e\u011filim ise Sterlin lehine. Bu k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilme, bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Japon otoritelerinin m\u00fcdahale ihtimali ger\u00e7ek ve dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022\u2019de ve 2024\u2019te, Yen benzer psikolojik seviyelerin (piyasada kritik g\u00f6r\u00fclen yuvarlak seviyeler) \u00f6tesinde zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde devreye girmi\u015fti. G\u00fcncel veriler, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde 50 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da yeniden harekete ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Yen aleyhine temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm (ekonomik dinamikler) H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyen gerilim nedeniyle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan gelen arz kesintileri s\u00fcrerken, Haziran vadeli Brent ham petrol kontratlar\u0131 (vadeli i\u015flem; belirli tarihte teslim i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden fiyatlanan s\u00f6zle\u015fme) varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 art\u0131\u015f demek. B\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan Japonya\u2019da y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ekonomi ve para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politikalar\u0131n\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; bu parite i\u00e7in kritik. Son Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019si (t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi; enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) %3,5 ile y\u00fcksek kald\u0131. Piyasalar, A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rma ihtimalini %60 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %2,2 civar\u0131nda yatay; bu da Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve\/veya likiditeyi azaltma) ertelemesine zemin veriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal ara\u00e7) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, geri \u00e7ekilmelerde GBP\/JPY call opsiyonu (al\u0131m opsiyonu; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almay\u0131 mant\u0131kl\u0131 k\u0131labilir. B\u00f6ylece ana y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminden faydalanma potansiyeli korunurken, ani bir m\u00fcdahale durumunda risk s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu, temel dinamiklerle politika tehdidi aras\u0131ndaki gerilimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6nemli seviyelerin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. 212,00\u2013213,50 band\u0131 (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamay\u0131 da i\u00e7eriyor) izlenecek ilk g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek b\u00f6lgesi. Bu b\u00f6lgeden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepki, uzun pozisyonlara (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle a\u00e7\u0131lan i\u015flem) ekleme i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir sinyal olabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" M\u00fcdahale alarm\u0131: Yen g\u00fc\u00e7lenince GBP\/JPY 215,74\u2019ten 215,27\u2019ye \u00e7ekildi. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 petrol bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrse de trend Sterlin lehine. 212\u2013213,5 destek, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte call opsiyonu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45337","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45337"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45337\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45337"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}