Euro, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1680 seviyesine indi; bu, 13 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinin t\u0131kanmas\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) zay\u0131flat\u0131rken, Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 aktivitesi verileri de genel olarak beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde \u00f6nc\u00fc (ilk a\u00e7\u0131klanan) HCOB PMI verisi, imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50 \u00fcst\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme, 50 alt\u0131 daralma) marttaki 51,6\u2019dan 52,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu sonu\u00e7 50,8 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine i\u015faret etti. Hizmetler PMI\u2019\u0131 ise 50,2\u2019den 47,4\u2019e gerileyerek 49,8 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bunun etkisiyle bile\u015fik endeks (imalat ve hizmetlerin toplam resmi) 50,7\u2019den 48,6\u2019ya indi (beklenti 50,2).<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapal\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; bu durum petrol ithal eden Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomileri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. \u0130ran \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc iki gemiye el koydu; ABD ordusu ise Asya sular\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 \u0130ran tankerinin rotas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 daha sonra ABD haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131na \u00e7evrilecek; verinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. Ard\u0131ndan nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc ABD S&P Global PMI verisi takip edilecek. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde EUR\/USD, mart sonundaki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini (fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselen bir \u00e7izgi \u00fczerinde ilerlemesi) k\u0131rd\u0131. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi, \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m\u201d fiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc anlat\u0131r) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma yakla\u015f\u0131yor. MACD histogram\u0131 (iki hareketli ortalama aras\u0131ndaki farktan \u00fcretilen momentum g\u00f6stergesi; k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7ubuklar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret eder) taraf\u0131nda da k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7ubuklar geni\u015fliyor.<\/p>\n
Destek (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ferken tutunabilece\u011fi seviye) 1,1680 civar\u0131nda; ard\u0131ndan 1,1643 ve 1,1505\u20131,1525 band\u0131 izleniyor. Diren\u00e7 (fiyat\u0131n y\u00fckselirken zorlanabilece\u011fi seviye) 1,1720 civar\u0131nda; ard\u0131ndan 1,1765 \u00e7evresi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 petrol fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 hafife al\u0131nmamal\u0131. Benzer bir tablo 2022\u2019de, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 enerji \u015fokuyla g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu %10,6 ile zirveye \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00f6rnek, enerji krizlerinde euronun ne kadar hassas oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor; \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 gerilim y\u00fcksek kald\u0131k\u00e7a a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesine kar\u015f\u0131n hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn daralmas\u0131, ekonomide dengesiz ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir tabloya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum, 2023\u2019te ABD ekonomisinin %2,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin yaln\u0131zca %0,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle g\u00f6r\u00fclen ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Bu temel fark, dolar lehine stratejileri destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik olarak y\u00fckselen trend \u00e7izgisinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 belirgin bir \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u201d sinyali. RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma yakla\u015fsa da hen\u00fcz tam olarak orada de\u011fil; bu da paritenin daha fazla geri \u00e7ekilme alan\u0131 olabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. 2022\u2019de \u00f6nemli destekler k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda EUR\/USD\u2019nin paritenin (1,00) alt\u0131na h\u0131zla inmesi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ivmesinin (hareketin h\u0131z\u0131) artabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde, opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) artmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Bu da \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme ihtimali daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck) \u201ccall spread\u201d satmay\u0131 (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli sat\u0131\u015f stratejisi; iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte kullan\u0131l\u0131r) daha cazip hale getirebilir. Bu stratejide ama\u00e7, paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 1,1765 direncini geri alamayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle prim (opsiyonun fiyat\u0131) toplamakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro\/dolar \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr geriliyor: 1,1680 ile 13 Nisan dibinde. \u0130ran riski, y\u00fckselen petrol ve zay\u0131f hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131 kuruyor; trend k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Destek 1,1643; diren\u00e7 1,1765.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45325","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45325","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45325"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45325\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45325"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45325"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45325"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}