BBH, artan ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fin ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini, bu nedenle dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fini bildirdi. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 104 dolar civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu; bunun 7 Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye oldu\u011funu ancak mart ay\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 120 dolarl\u0131k \u201c\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tepe\u201d (fiyat\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 kez ayn\u0131 zirve b\u00f6lgesini test edip a\u015famamas\u0131) seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 hen\u00fcz \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in enerji arz \u015fokunun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ekledi. K\u00fcresel tahvil getirilerinin yeniden yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n politika faizlerine ili\u015fkin beklentileri yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. (Tahvil getirisi, tahvilin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri oran\u0131d\u0131r; politika faizi ise merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n piyasay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fi temel faiz oran\u0131d\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
G\u00fcncellemede, enerji \u015fokunun en k\u00f6t\u00fc d\u00f6neminin b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla geride kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. ABD\u2019nin ate\u015fkesi s\u00fcresiz uzatmas\u0131na at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kullanan gemiler i\u00e7in \u201cHerkese A\u00e7\u0131k ya da Herkese Kapal\u0131\u201d \u015feklinde tan\u0131mlanan bir seyir\/eri\u015fim tutumu anlat\u0131ld\u0131. (H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131d\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n, ortak ekonomik maliyetleri ve diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm te\u015fviklerini art\u0131rarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilece\u011fi belirtildi. ABD ile di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomiler aras\u0131ndaki \u201cfaiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d (\u00fclkelerin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark; sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ve kur hareketlerini etkiler) ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131nda tutmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Buna g\u00f6re, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerinden olu\u015fan sepete kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) yakla\u015f\u0131k 96,00\u2013100,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutmaya devam etmesi bekleniyor; bu bant bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir korunuyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) son \u201cnokta grafi\u011fi\u201d (dot plot: Fed yetkililerinin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck faiz tahmini noktalar\u0131) faizde beklemeye i\u015faret etse de Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 gibi kar\u015f\u0131 taraflar\u0131n temkinli kalmas\u0131, dolar lehine faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. \u201cT\u00fcrev\u201d (vadeli i\u015flem ve opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bu, DXY\u2019nin bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131na dayal\u0131 stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
DXY 98,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u201cvolatilite satmak\u201d (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla opsiyon primi toplamak) temel stratejilerden biri olabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 96,00\u2013100,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na odaklanan \u201ciron condor\u201d veya \u201cstrangle\u201d gibi opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir. (Iron condor: belirli bir bantta kalma beklentisiyle kurulan d\u00f6rt bacakl\u0131 opsiyon yap\u0131s\u0131; strangle: farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte kullanarak kurulabilen yap\u0131.) Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u201czaman de\u011feri erimesinden\u201d (opsiyonlarda vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a primin azalmas\u0131) ve endeksin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde \u201cdirencin\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) \u00fczerine ya da \u201cdeste\u011fin\u201d (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunulan seviye) alt\u0131na gitmeyece\u011fi beklentisinden kazan\u00e7 hedefler.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrol 104 dolara t\u0131rman\u0131rken tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseldi; dolar maj\u00f6rler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. BBH, enerji \u015fokunun zirvesinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fini, DXY\u2019nin 96-100 band\u0131nda kal\u0131p volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fini vurguluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45320"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45320\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}