Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Japon yeni \u00fczerinde tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc (s\u00fcrekli ayn\u0131 y\u00f6ne giden) spek\u00fclatif hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmetin gizli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri yapma konusunda \u201cserbest hareket alan\u0131na\u201d sahip oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Katayama ayr\u0131ca, finans yetkililerinin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri temkinli izledi\u011fini belirtti. \u015eimdilik stagflasyon (ekonomide durgunlukla birlikte y\u00fcksek enflasyonun ayn\u0131 anda g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi) riskinden \u00e7ok endi\u015fe duymad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 da ekledi.<\/p>\n
Katayama, ABD ve Japonya\u2019daki yetkililerin d\u00f6viz konular\u0131nda yak\u0131n temas halinde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinin (merkez bankas\u0131 veya h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kur \u00fczerinde etkili olmak i\u00e7in piyasaya al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapmas\u0131) her seferinde etkili oldu\u011funu da ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Yen, a\u00e7\u0131klamalara hemen tepki vermedi. USD\/JPY %0,16 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 159,75 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD dolar\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti.<\/p>\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmet, USD\/JPY 170,00 seviyesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken yeniden \u201cserbest hareket alan\u0131\u201d mesaj\u0131 veriyor. Bu seviye, onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen d\u00fczeylere i\u015faret ediyor. 2024 ve 2025 boyunca benzer s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar s\u0131k\u00e7a yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan \u00e7o\u011fu kez sert ve ani hareketler gelmi\u015fti. Bu s\u00f6ylem, gizli m\u00fcdahale riskinin \u015fu anda \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz oranlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark; dolar faizleri y\u00fcksek kald\u0131k\u00e7a yen genelde zay\u0131f olur) devam etse bile, opsiyon i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2024 sonundaki m\u00fcdahaleler JPY i\u00e7in k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli rahatlama sa\u011flam\u0131\u015f, ancak USD\/JPY\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi yeniden devam etmi\u015fti. Japonya D\u00f6viz Piyasas\u0131 Komitesi verilerine g\u00f6re, USD\/JPY t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde (fiyat\u0131 kurdan t\u00fcreyen s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler; \u00f6rn. opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flemler) g\u00fcnl\u00fck i\u015flem hacmi son \u00e7eyrekte %15 artt\u0131. Bu da korunma (hedging: kur riskine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonu dengeleme) ve spek\u00fclatif i\u015flemlerin y\u00fckseldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, USD\/JPY\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli ve paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money: mevcut fiyattan hen\u00fcz kazanca ge\u00e7memi\u015f) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: kur d\u00fc\u015ferse kazand\u0131ran opsiyon) almak, ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir korunma y\u00f6ntemi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyat\u0131na yans\u0131yan, piyasan\u0131n bekledi\u011fi dalgalanma) y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndaki %9 dip seviyesinden %12,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Buna ra\u011fmen, tek bir seansta 5-7 yenlik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 tam fiyatlam\u0131yor olabilir. B\u00f6yle bir hareket, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte resmi ad\u0131mlar sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere benzer.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, m\u00fcdahalenin yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak da de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7mi\u015f ad\u0131mlar uzun vadeli trendi tersine \u00e7evirmekte ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamad\u0131. Temel dinamik olan \u201ccarry trade\u201d (faizi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p faizi y\u00fcksek para birimine ge\u00e7erek faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri hedeflenen strateji) h\u00e2l\u00e2 cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi yaln\u0131zca %0,5 iken, di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131nda faizler belirgin \u015fekilde daha y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle, parite 162-164 destek b\u00f6lgesine (fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi aral\u0131k) geri sarkarsa, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yeniden uzun pozisyon (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon) i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Yen\u2019de alarm zilleri: Maliye Bakan\u0131 Katayama, tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc spek\u00fclasyona kar\u015f\u0131 Tokyo\u2019nun gizli d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinde \u201cserbest hareket alan\u0131\u201d oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131. USD\/JPY 160\u2019a yak\u0131n; oynakl\u0131k ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45319","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45319","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45319"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45319\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45319"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45319"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45319"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}