TD Securities, Mart ay\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacimlerinin (sat\u0131lan \u00fcr\u00fcn miktar\u0131) ayl\u0131k bazda %0,1 artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Piyasa beklentisi %0,0 seviyesinde. \u015eubat\u2019ta sat\u0131\u015flar ayl\u0131k bazda %-0,4 gerilemi\u015fti; Ocak\u2019taki art\u0131\u015f ise indirim kampanyalar\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Mart\u2019taki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana nedeni, kampanya ve promosyonlar\u0131n (ge\u00e7ici indirimlerin) yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkinin azalmas\u0131. Yani temel talepte (t\u00fcketicinin ger\u00e7ek al\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131nda) belirgin bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeden \u00e7ok \u201cnormalle\u015fme\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Online ve ma\u011faza d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar (internet, teslimat vb.) toplam\u0131 destekleyebilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u0131da ve s\u00fcpermarket sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 genel rakam\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n
Mart\u2019ta havan\u0131n \u0131s\u0131nmas\u0131 ve ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla ev e\u015fyas\u0131 gibi kalemlerde hava kaynakl\u0131 olumsuz etkinin hafiflemesi bekleniyor. Beklenen art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu belirtiliyor; bu d\u00f6nem, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen s\u00fcre\u00e7.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r faaliyeti Nisan\u2019da y\u00fckseldi. Bu, PMI verilerine (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: \u015firketlerin \u00fcretim ve sipari\u015f e\u011filimini \u00f6l\u00e7en anket g\u00f6stergesi) dayan\u0131yor. \u0130malat PMI 53,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (TDS: 50,5; piyasa: 50,3; \u00f6nceki: 51,0). Hizmet PMI ise 52,0 oldu (TDS\/piyasa: 50,0; \u00f6nceki: 50,5). 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye, alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n
\u0130malattaki art\u0131\u015f; ham madde fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve tedarik zinciri (\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fcretimden teslimata kadar uzanan lojistik\/tedarik a\u011f\u0131) endi\u015feleri nedeniyle firmalar\u0131n daha erken sipari\u015f vermesi ve stok biriktirmesiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi. Hizmet taraf\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f ise teknoloji harcamalar\u0131 ve pazarlama faaliyetleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131. Ancak talep ve beklentiler; girdi maliyetlerinde (\u00fcretimde kullan\u0131lan enerji, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc, ham madde) daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, k\u00fcresel belirsizlik ve daha y\u00fcksek ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetleri nedeniyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclse de bu, Ocak\u2019taki kampanya d\u00f6neminden sonra normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f gibi duruyor; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir t\u00fcketici talebi sinyali de\u011fil. Online sat\u0131\u015flar destek veriyor, ancak g\u0131da sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 zay\u0131f kal\u0131yor ve ger\u00e7ek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu da t\u00fcketici odakl\u0131 hisselerde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisinin erken olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Nisan\u2019da Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta i\u015f faaliyeti toparlan\u0131rken imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n 53,6 ile son d\u00f6nemin y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ilk bak\u0131\u015fta olumlu. Ancak bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn, ger\u00e7ek m\u00fc\u015fteri sipari\u015flerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramadan \u00e7ok firmalar\u0131n fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve tedarik sorunlar\u0131 korkusuyla stok yapmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bu t\u00fcr stok kaynakl\u0131 hareket kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayabilir ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda h\u0131zla tersine d\u00f6nebilir.<\/p>\n
Ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk, yak\u0131t ve ham madde maliyetlerindeki sert art\u0131\u015f. Bu durum son enflasyon verisini %3,5\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yarak \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) hedefinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131 (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131) ve k\u00fcresel belirsizlik \u015firketleri tedirgin ediyor ve BoE\u2019nin faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu tablo, \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131 ve hisse piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in zorlay\u0131c\u0131 bir ortam demek.<\/p>\n
Geride b\u0131rak\u0131lan d\u00f6neme bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu kurgu 2025\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fclen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131) hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor: toparlanma i\u015faretleri, beklenmedik k\u00fcresel arz \u015foklar\u0131yla (tedarikte ani bozulma) h\u0131zla silinmi\u015fti. Mevcut jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle, olumlu verilerin yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fi benzer bir senaryoya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Bu nedenle yaln\u0131zca PMI verilerine bakarak piyasada \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon) almak riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge: riski dengeleme) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. FTSE 250 endeksi \u00fczerinde put opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan hak) almak, b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) h\u00e2l\u00e2 g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken bu \u201csigortan\u0131n\u201d maliyeti hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz taraf\u0131nda, y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyon \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019ni k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor. BoE\u2019nin bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131na dair belirsizlik, GBP\/USD gibi paritelerde (iki para biriminin birbirine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011feri) sert dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7abilir. Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejiler, \u00f6rne\u011fin long straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alarak b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten yararlanma), dalgal\u0131 haftalarda uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz mi geliyor? TD Securities, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de Mart perakendede %0,1 art\u0131\u015f bekliyor; bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenme de\u011fil normalle\u015fme. PMI y\u00fckseli\u015fi stok etkisi. Enflasyon risk, BoE belirsiz; hedge \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45318"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45318\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}