Rabobank stratejisti Michael Every, \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksamalar\u0131n enerji piyasas\u0131nda \u201cnormalle\u015fme\u201d (arz\u0131n yeniden d\u00fczenli ve sorunsuz akmas\u0131) s\u00fcrecini 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fe (Q4) sark\u0131tabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Olas\u0131 may\u0131nlar\u0131n temizlenmesinin, denizde ka\u00e7 may\u0131n bulundu\u011funa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak haftalardan aylara kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re \u0130ran, bo\u011fazdaki gemilere ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131 ve iki gemiye el koydu. Ayr\u0131ca su yoluna daha geni\u015f alanda may\u0131n d\u00f6\u015femek i\u00e7in s\u00fcrat tekneleri kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair \u015f\u00fcpheler bulundu\u011fu ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, may\u0131n temizli\u011finde kullan\u0131lan deniz dronlar\u0131n\u0131n (uzaktan kumandal\u0131\/insans\u0131z deniz ara\u00e7lar\u0131) eski y\u00f6ntemlere k\u0131yasla daha az denenmi\u015f oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f \u00f6rneklere g\u00f6re, bo\u011faz\u0131n temizlenmesi i\u00e7in s\u00fcre tahmini yine haftalardan aylara uzan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Rapora g\u00f6re petrol ve do\u011fal gaz vadeli i\u015flem fiyatlar\u0131, arz riskini belirgin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor. (Vadeli i\u015flemler, belirli bir tarihte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerdir.) Bu durumun fiyatlara 4. \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar yans\u0131ma ihtimaline dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca raporda, \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle Panama Kanal\u0131\u2019ndaki ge\u00e7i\u015f \u201chat\u201d fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n sava\u015f \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re be\u015f kata kadar \u00e7\u0131karak rekor k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Bunun ana nedeni olarak Asyal\u0131 LNG (s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz) ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7i\u015f hakk\u0131 i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek fiyat teklif etmesi g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda, g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi hatta, gerilimin t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediliyor. Bu ay yay\u0131nlanan istihbarat raporlar\u0131n\u0131n yeni deniz dronlar\u0131 ve olas\u0131 may\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131\u011f\u0131, may\u0131nlar\u0131n geni\u015f alana yay\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde temizli\u011fin aylar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Bu durum, d\u00fcnya enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in do\u011frudan ve h\u0131zl\u0131 bir risk olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Vadeli piyasalar\u0131n, ham petrol ve do\u011fal gazda bu arz riskinin ciddiyetini yeterince yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade ediliyor. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131ndayken, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kesintiyi fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik dron sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde fiyat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131larak, piyasan\u0131n haz\u0131rl\u0131ks\u0131z yakaland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 tepki verebildi\u011fi vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Gerilimin k\u00fcresel etkileri \u015fimdiden hissediliyor: Asyal\u0131 LNG ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131, ge\u00e7i\u015fi garantiye almak i\u00e7in Panama Kanal\u0131 ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretlerini rekor seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu LNG \u201ckap\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201d, Avrupa\u2019da do\u011fal gaz depolama seviyesinin %55\u2019te oldu\u011fu, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi ve Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 bir arz \u015foku i\u00e7in tamponun s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ya\u015fanacak her t\u00fcrl\u00fc kesinti, zaten s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k (arz\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu) k\u00fcresel gaz piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yaratabilir.<\/p>\n
Mevcut piyasa kay\u0131ts\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131, opsiyonlar\u0131n (belirli bir tarihe kadar belirli fiyattan alma\/satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) ani bir arz \u015foku ihtimalini tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da \u201coynakl\u0131k sat\u0131n almay\u0131\u201d (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisiyle opsiyon gibi ara\u00e7larla pozisyon almay\u0131) daha cazip hale getiriyor. Kritik unsur, enerji piyasas\u0131nda normalle\u015fmenin y\u0131l sonuna \u00f6telenebilece\u011fi fark edilmeden \u00f6nce hareket etmek olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alarm zilleri \u00e7al\u0131yor: Rabobank\u2019a g\u00f6re H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de may\u0131n ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma riski enerji arz\u0131nda \u201cnormalle\u015fmeyi\u201d Q4\u2019e \u00f6teleyebilir. Vadeli piyasalar riski d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor; LNG yar\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Panama \u00fccretleri 5 katland\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45315","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45315","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45315"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45315\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45315"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45315"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45315"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}