Euro B\u00f6lgesi HCOB Bile\u015fik PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi) nisan ay\u0131nda 48,6 oldu. Beklenti 50,2 idi.<\/p>\n
50\u2019nin alt\u0131, genel i\u015f faaliyetlerinin darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; 50\u2019nin \u00fczeri ise genel i\u015f faaliyetlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n
Geriye d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Nisan 2025\u2019teki zay\u0131f Bile\u015fik PMI verisi, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ekonomik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin net bir sinyaliydi. 48,6\u2019l\u0131k seviye, b\u00fcy\u00fcme e\u015fi\u011fi olan 50\u2019nin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) \u201cgev\u015femeye\u201d (faiz indirimine) y\u00f6nelmesini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmemize neden oldu. ECB de bunu ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi ve Eyl\u00fcl-Aral\u0131k 2025 aras\u0131nda ana mevduat faizini (bankalar\u0131n ECB\u2019de tuttuklar\u0131 paraya uygulanan temel faiz) 50 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc (baz puan: faizde %0,01\u2019lik de\u011fi\u015fim).<\/p>\n
Bu ge\u00e7mi\u015f tablo, son d\u00f6nemdeki yatay seyre ra\u011fmen Euro konusunda temkinli kalmam\u0131za neden oluyor. Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u015eubat 2026 sanayi \u00fcretimi ayl\u0131k %0,2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi; bu, temeldeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. EUR\/USD paritesinde (Euro\/Dolar kuru) put opsiyonu (kur d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, 1,05\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyerek yeni bir gerilemeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Avrupa hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle EURO STOXX 50 endeksi, hen\u00fcz kesin olmayan \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d senaryosunu (b\u00fcy\u00fcme sert d\u00fc\u015fmeden enflasyonun gerilemesi) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. VSTOXX oynakl\u0131k endeksi (Euro B\u00f6lgesi hisselerinde beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 g\u00f6steren \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) \u015fu anda 14,5 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde; belirsizlikler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde bu durumu fazla rahat buluyoruz. Olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in VSTOXX call opsiyonu (endeks y\u00fckselirse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) al\u0131m\u0131 veya b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupa endekslerinde ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisine y\u00f6nelik, bir put al\u0131p ba\u015fka bir put satarak maliyeti azaltan opsiyon stratejisi) gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bundan sonraki faiz patikas\u0131 (faizlerin izleyece\u011fi olas\u0131 y\u00f6n) daha belirsiz. 2025\u2019te ba\u015flayan yava\u015flama daha fazla faiz indirimi ihtimalini art\u0131rsa da, Euro B\u00f6lgesi Mart 2026 Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (HICP: \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir resmi enflasyon \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc) %2,7 ile %2,5 beklentisinin hafif \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu tablo, piyasan\u0131n gelecekteki ECB faiz indirimlerinin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 abart\u0131yor olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu nedenle daha \u201cyatay\u201d bir getiri e\u011frisi (k\u0131sa ve uzun vadeli tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n azalmas\u0131) senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon almak g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz PMI \u015foku: Euro B\u00f6lgesi HCOB Bile\u015fik PMI nisan\u2019da 48,6 ile 50 e\u015fi\u011fi alt\u0131na indi. Daralma sinyali ECB gev\u015femeyi tetikledi; Euro\u2019da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk, hissede koruma, enflasyonda belirsizlik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45310"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45310\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}