UOB, beklenenden daha sakin ge\u00e7en bir seans\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, AUD\/USD\u2019nin (Avustralya dolar\u0131\/ABD dolar\u0131 paritesi) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 24 saatte 0,7130 ile 0,7180 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesini bekliyor. Bir \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen bant 0,7125\u20130,7175\u2019ti; parite ise 0,7147\u20130,7176 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket etti.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1\u20133 haftada UOB, 0,7060\u20130,7210 band\u0131nda yatay seyir (fiyat\u0131n belirli bir aral\u0131kta gidip gelmesi) beklentisini koruyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f en son 20 Nisan Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc, spot fiyat (anl\u0131k fiyat) 0,7130 iken payla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve son i\u015flemler sakin kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
1\u20133 ayl\u0131k vadede teknik trend (fiyat grafi\u011fine dayal\u0131 e\u011filim) h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. 0,6850\/0,6870 seviyesinin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma (fiyat\u0131n seviyenin alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ge\u00e7mesi), 0,6765\u2019e do\u011fru hareketin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. <\/p>\n
Bu yaz\u0131da, Nisan 2025 analizimizdeki gibi benzer bir \u201csakin s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma\u201d (dar bantta birikme) g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. AUD\/USD\u2019de mevcut fiyat hareketi ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00f6ns\u00fcz; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bant hareketinin (range trading: fiyat\u0131n bir alt ve \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r aras\u0131nda gidip gelmesi) s\u00fcrmesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Parite 0,6550 \u00e7evresinde d\u00f6n\u00fcyor; belirgin y\u00fckseli\u015fleri ya da sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri kal\u0131c\u0131la\u015ft\u0131ram\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (volatility selling: fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle opsiyon primi toplama) daha uygun bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,6480\u20130,6620 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n korunaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle k\u0131sa strangle (ayn\u0131 vadede, farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonunu satarak prim toplama) veya iron condor (daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 risk i\u00e7in iki spread\u2019in birlikte kurulmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. Bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) %8,5 civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrederken, bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar zaman de\u011ferinin erimesinden (time decay: vade yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a opsiyon de\u011ferinin azalmas\u0131) yararlanmay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Bu yatay hareketin arkas\u0131nda \u00e7eli\u015fkili makro veriler var. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) verisi %3,2 geldi. Bu oran RBA\u2019n\u0131n (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131) hedefinin \u00fczerinde olsa da, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 (rate hike) zorunlulu\u011fu yaratacak kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor; bu nedenle banka bekle-g\u00f6r (faizi sabit tutma) tutumunu koruyor. Ayn\u0131 zamanda \u00c7in\u2019den gelen karma sanayi \u00fcretimi (industrial production: fabrikalar\u0131n \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131) verileri, Avustralya dolar\u0131na net bir yukar\u0131 itki vermiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor ve AUD\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls: ABD\u2019de tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki ayl\u0131k istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131) raporunda 250 binin \u00fczerinde istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz indirimlerini erteleme duru\u015funu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Sab\u0131rl\u0131 Fed ile n\u00f6tr RBA aras\u0131ndaki bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, pariteyi mevcut band\u0131nda tutan ana etken.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadede bant korunuyor olsa da, bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir ge\u00e7erli olan genel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi unutulmamal\u0131. 0,6480 destek seviyesinin (support: al\u0131mlar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yava\u015flatan seviye) alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131na i\u015faret edebilir. Bu nedenle, oynakl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d put (mevcut fiyat\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak, ani bir negatif fiyatlama riskine kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge: risk azaltma) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/USD\u2019de dikkat: UOB\u2019ye g\u00f6re 24 saatte 0,7130\u20130,7180, 1\u20133 haftada 0,7060\u20130,7210 band\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 destekler; 0,6480 alt\u0131 risk. Fed g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, RBA n\u00f6tr; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45306"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45306\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}