G\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f (XAG\/USD) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,3 gerileyerek 76,00 dolar civar\u0131na indi. Sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131nda, petrol\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol 95,80 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak son bir haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kapal\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2h k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi \u201cdar ge\u00e7it\u201d (arz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kolayca aksatabilen kritik rota) konumunda. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bo\u011faz\u0131n kapal\u0131 olmas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ablukay\u0131 kald\u0131rana kadar H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu ad\u0131m \u0130ran\u2019da ticari faaliyeti durma noktas\u0131na getirdi.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, k\u00fcresel enflasyon (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Enflasyon beklentisi art\u0131nca merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimi alan\u0131 daral\u0131r. Bu da \u201cgetiri \u00fcretmeyen\u201d (faiz\/temett\u00fc \u00f6demesi olmayan) varl\u0131klar aras\u0131nda yer alan g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fe talebi zay\u0131flat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131 da, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) bu y\u0131l faiz indirmeyece\u011fi beklentileriyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. CME FedWatch arac\u0131na (vadeli i\u015flemlerden faiz beklentisi \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) g\u00f6re Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faizin %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %76,8. Dolar Endeksi (DXY \u2013 dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7en endeks) 98,70 civar\u0131nda haftal\u0131k zirveye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
XAG\/USD 76 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA \u2013 son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 76,84 dolarda diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan seviye) olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. RSI 47,85 seviyesindeydi. Diren\u00e7 83,00 dolar civar\u0131nda, destekler (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte tutunma seviyeleri) 72,60 ve 68,28 dolar. Yukar\u0131da 90,00 dolar da di\u011fer \u00f6nemli seviye olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol\u00fcn H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki kapanma nedeniyle 95,80 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131, enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu durum Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutma gerek\u00e7esini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; bu da g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f gibi getiri \u00fcretmeyen bir varl\u0131k i\u00e7in belirgin bir olumsuz unsur. DXY\u2019nin 98,70\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi de g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn cazibesini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik zay\u0131fl\u0131k ve olumsuz makro g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm nedeniyle g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu (belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) al\u0131m\u0131 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Fiyat 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor. Y\u00fckselen \u00fc\u00e7gen formasyonunun (yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket \u00fcretebilen teknik yap\u0131) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde 72,60 dolar deste\u011fine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu da yak\u0131n vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flemler i\u00e7in hedefi net bir yap\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, 83,00 dolar ana direncinin \u00fczerinde daha g\u00fcvenli kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m (call) kredi spreadi (iki call opsiyonuyla kurulan, prim geliri hedefleyen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli strateji) satmak daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir. Bu strateji, k\u0131r\u0131lma korkusunun y\u00fckseltti\u011fi primi toplarken mevcut a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e avantaj sa\u011flar. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ani bir diplomatik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 bu pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131na haz\u0131r olmak gerekir; b\u00f6yle bir durumda petrol d\u00fc\u015febilir ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f toparlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz krizi petrol\u00fc 95,80 dolara ta\u015f\u0131rken g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f 76 dolara %2,3 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Enflasyon ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, Fed\u2019in indirimsiz duru\u015funu besliyor. Teknikte 76,84 diren\u00e7; 72,60 hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45302"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45302\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}