USD\/JPY, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 159,35 civar\u0131na geriledi; ABD Dolar\u0131 Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. \u00d6n S&P Global PMI verileri (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; \u015firketlerin \u00fcretim ve sipari\u015f e\u011filimlerini g\u00f6steren erken g\u00f6sterge) Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019dan \u201cortak bir teklif\u201d beklerken ate\u015fkesi uzatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u0130ran, ABD deniz ablukas\u0131na ra\u011fmen H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Beyaz Saray ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgede iki gemiye el koydu\u011fu iddias\u0131n\u0131 ate\u015fkes ihlali olarak g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
L\u00fcbnan, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Washington\u2019daki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde \u0130srail ile ate\u015fkesin bir ay uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 talep etmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. 14 Nisan\u2019daki L\u00fcbnan\u2013\u0130srail g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ilk temas olurken, ABD daha sonra Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc sona erecek 10 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir ate\u015fkes ilan etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kazuo Ueda, sava\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u201columsuz arz \u015foku\u201d (\u00fcretim\/tedarik taraf\u0131nda bozulma) nedeniyle ekonomik belirsizli\u011fe i\u015faret ederek Nisan\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali vermedi. Piyasalar genel olarak BoJ\u2019un en az Haziran 2026\u2019ya kadar faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar May\u0131s\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %72\u2013%77 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Haziran\u2019a kadar art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %99 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
USD\/JPY\u2019nin \u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131yla 159,35\u2019e gerilemesi, dolara y\u00f6nelik \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde talep g\u00f6ren varl\u0131k) talebinin azalmas\u0131yla a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Ancak bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, genel y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi i\u00e7inde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir tepki olabilir; dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in ilgi \u00e7ekici bir seviyeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 konusundaki tutumu ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan L\u00fcbnan-\u0130srail ate\u015fkesi gibi ba\u015fl\u0131klar, ani fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131 beklentisini art\u0131r\u0131yor. 2023 sonlar\u0131nda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar \u015fiddetlenirken d\u00f6viz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda benzer s\u0131\u00e7ramalar g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f, Cboe Volatilite Endeksi (VIX; ABD hisse piyasas\u0131nda beklenen dalgalanmay\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en \u201ckorku endeksi\u201d) 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu ortam, opsiyon kullanarak (belirli bir fiyattan al\u0131m\/sat\u0131m hakk\u0131 veren t\u00fcrev ara\u00e7) ani ve beklenmedik hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 i\u015flem yapmak veya korunmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ana belirleyici, ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131. Piyasa Haziran\u2019a kadar ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %99 g\u00f6r\u00fcrken BoJ beklemede kal\u0131rsa, fark 5,5 y\u00fczde puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Tarihsel olarak bu kadar geni\u015f fark, dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini destekleyerek \u201ccarry trade\u201di (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli para birimine yat\u0131r\u0131m) te\u015fvik eder.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik riskler nedeniyle USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda \u201cz\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde g\u00f6r\u00fclen %10-12 band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 beklenebilir. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD S&P Global PMI verileri, ABD ekonomisinin g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7in bir sonraki \u00f6nemli s\u0131nama olacak. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir veri, Fed\u2019in \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu (faizi y\u00fcksek tutma\/ art\u0131rma e\u011filimi) peki\u015ftirerek pariteyi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc zemin dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in USD\/JPY\u2019de \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money; \u015fu anki fiyata g\u00f6re kullan\u0131m\u0131 k\u00e2rs\u0131z) sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik hak) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu strateji, paritenin mevcut seviyelerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na inmeyece\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla \u201cprim\u201d (opsiyonun pe\u015fin bedeli) toplamay\u0131 hedefler. Faiz fark\u0131, yenin sert g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek olu\u015fturdu\u011fundan, keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin kal\u0131c\u0131 olma ihtimali azal\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 159,35\u2019e geriledi: ate\u015fkes uzad\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman dolara talep azald\u0131. Ancak Fed-BoJ faiz fark\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi destekliyor; oynakl\u0131k\/opsiyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, PMI kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45286"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45286\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}