Wall Street Journal\u2019\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi\u011fine g\u00f6re \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u00fc\u00e7 gemiye ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131 ve bunlardan ikisini \u0130ran karasular\u0131na eskort etti. Olaylar, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Amerikan donanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ablukay\u0131 (limanlara giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 engelleyen denizden bask\u0131) s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken ate\u015fkesi uzatmas\u0131ndan bir g\u00fcn sonra ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran medyas\u0131, \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019nun (Devrimi korumakla g\u00f6revli askeri g\u00fc\u00e7) iki gemiyi \u0130ran\u2019a g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Beyaz Saray S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Karoline Leavitt, bu el koymalar\u0131n ate\u015fkes \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 ihlal etmedi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas t\u00fcr\u00fc (WTI) ham petrol, yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,35 art\u0131\u015fla 92,25 dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gemilere el koydu\u011fu d\u00f6nemdeki gerilimi hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. 2025\u2019teki bu geli\u015fme WTI\u2019yi 92 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015f, piyasada sert dalgalanmaya (fiyatlarda h\u0131zl\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck ini\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f) yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu haf\u0131za, bug\u00fcn i\u015flemlerde (al\u0131m-sat\u0131m kararlar\u0131nda) etkisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda bo\u011fazdan petrol ge\u00e7i\u015fi daha dengeli. ABD Enerji Bilgi \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) verilerine g\u00f6re ak\u0131\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil seviyesinde; bu, kriz \u00f6ncesine yak\u0131n. Ancak diplomasi k\u0131r\u0131lgan; bir kopu\u015f alg\u0131s\u0131 bile piyasaya an\u0131nda \u201crisk primi\u201d (belirsizlik nedeniyle fiyata eklenen ekstra bedel) ekleyebilir. Bu durum, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 izleyenler i\u00e7in aldat\u0131c\u0131 bir sakinlik yarat\u0131yor; petrol bug\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda tutunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tabloda, petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda (gelecekte belirli fiyattan alma-satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler) beklenen oynakl\u0131k (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131 beklentisi) al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k derecede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) 32 civar\u0131nda; 2025\u2019te 50\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki zirvelere g\u00f6re belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu da, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir \u015foka kar\u015f\u0131 opsiyon almay\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz hale getirebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri (gelecek tarihli standart al\u0131m-sat\u0131m s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri) \u00fczerinde \u201cuzun straddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak; b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketine oynar) bu ama\u00e7la kullan\u0131labilir. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte arz kesintilerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi piyasa, jeopolitik riski \u00e7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede fiyatlayabilir.<\/p>\n
Bir di\u011fer yakla\u015f\u0131m Brent ile WTI aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131na (spread; iki \u00fcr\u00fcn aras\u0131ndaki fiyat fark\u0131) odaklanmak. Bu fark \u015fu anda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 3,50 dolar\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde ve dar. Tarihsel olarak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de gerilim Brent\u2019i daha fazla etkiler ve bu fark b\u00fcy\u00fcr. 2019\u2019da fark 7 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu nedenle Brent\u2013WTI fark\u0131nda \u201cuzun pozisyon\u201d (fark\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi beklentisiyle pozisyon almak) Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 gerilime daha do\u011frudan bir i\u015flem fikri sunabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de gerilim yeniden: \u0130ran \u00fc\u00e7 gemiye ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131, ikisini karasular\u0131na eskort etti. WTI 92,25 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ak\u0131\u015f 21 mn varil\/g\u00fcn. OVX 32; opsiyonlar ucuz, Brent\u2013WTI spreadi dar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45285","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45285"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45285\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45285"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45285"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45285"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}