NZD\/USD d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 0,5910 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkesinin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebi (belirsizlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00f6neldi\u011fi varl\u0131k talebi) azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in zay\u0131flarken parite 0,5900 \u00e7evresinde tutundu.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Pakistan\u2019\u0131n talebi \u00fczerine ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran ile ate\u015fkesi uzataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Karar, Tahran\u2019dan (\u0130ran y\u00f6netiminden) ortak bir teklif beklenmesiyle ili\u015fkilendirildi. Bu durum, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselten yeniden \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma endi\u015fesini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Gerilim y\u00fcksek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130ran H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc korudu, ge\u00e7i\u015fi k\u0131s\u0131tlad\u0131 ve gemileri hedef ald\u0131. \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve ba\u015f m\u00fczakereci Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in ate\u015fkes ihlalleri (ate\u015fkese uymayan eylemler) s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131 (donanmayla deniz trafi\u011fini engelleme) d\u00e2hil olmak \u00fczere, bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cimk\u00e2ns\u0131z\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019da \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi, Hindistan\u2013Yeni Zelanda serbest ticaret anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu, anla\u015fman\u0131n Parlamento\u2019dan ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in National ve ACT\u2019ye yeterli oyu sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s, k\u00fcresel ekonomik ve siyasi belirsizli\u011fi gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n \u201cg\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u201d\u00fcn\u00fc (kredi notuna ili\u015fkin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck beklenti) dura\u011fandan negatife \u00e7evirdi. Fitch Ratings de Mart ay\u0131nda benzer bir indirime gitti.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn, faiz fark\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin politika faizi aras\u0131ndaki fark) Kiwi\u2019ye (Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131) daha sa\u011flam bir zemin sunuyor: Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi 5,0 iken ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n oran\u0131 4,75. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da 1. \u00e7eyrek enflasyon 3,5\u2019e gerilese de, RBNZ\u2019nin hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fahin duru\u015fu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmaya e\u011filimli tutum) \u015fimdilik korunuyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l g\u00f6r\u00fclen kal\u0131c\u0131 jeopolitik belirsizlik, oynakl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 hedefleyen pozisyon) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. 2022\u2019deki Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda d\u00f6viz paritelerinde z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen oynakl\u0131k) s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131; benzer \u015fekilde k\u00fcresel s\u0131cak noktalardaki her t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f, i\u00e7 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 kolayca g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabilir. Uzun vadeli NZD\/USD \u201cstraddle\u201d (ayn\u0131 vade ve ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla bir al\u0131m ve bir sat\u0131m opsiyonu birlikte) almak, y\u00f6n fark etmeksizin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in etkili olabilir.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n emtia ihracat\u0131na (tar\u0131m ve ham madde gibi \u00fcr\u00fcnler) ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle ekonomik bask\u0131lar da izlenmeli. Son Global Dairy Trade ihalelerinde tam ya\u011fl\u0131 s\u00fct tozu fiyatlar\u0131 %2,5 geriledi; bu durum NZD \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Mevcut uzun pozisyonu (y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f pozisyon) olanlar i\u00e7in 0,6000 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (fiyat d\u00fc\u015ferse kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan opsiyon) almak, olas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir korunma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
NZD ile USD aras\u0131ndaki pozitif ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisi (faiz fark\u0131ndan do\u011fan getiri) f\u0131rsat sunmaya devam ediyor; ancak s\u0131k\u0131 risk y\u00f6netimi gerektiriyor. \u201cBull call spread\u201d (daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu satma) gibi opsiyon stratejileri, paritede s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011flar ve i\u015flem tersine d\u00f6nerse \u00f6nceden belirli bir azami zarar avantaj\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kiwi d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnd\u00fcr diren\u00e7li: NZD\/USD 0,5910\u2019da. ABD\u2013\u0130ran ate\u015fkes uzat\u0131m\u0131yla dolar zay\u0131f; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. NZ faiz avantaj\u0131 destek; Moody\u2019s g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm negatif. Opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45283","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45283"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45283\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45283"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45283"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45283"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}