G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 (GSYH: bir \u00fclkenin belirli d\u00f6nemde \u00fcretti\u011fi toplam nihai mal ve hizmet de\u011feri) ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda (y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re) %3,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bu oran, ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in piyasa beklentisi olan %2,7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerin \u00fczerindeki GSYH (toplam \u00fcretim) art\u0131\u015f\u0131, G\u00fcney Kore para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc belirgin \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015ftiriyor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe kadar olas\u0131 bir faiz indirimi bekliyorduk; ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri bu ihtimali azalt\u0131yor. Kore Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BOK), ekonomideki bu net g\u00fc\u00e7lenme nedeniyle faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 (faizleri hangi y\u00f6nde ve h\u0131zda de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fine dair plan) yeniden de\u011ferlendirmek zorunda kalabilir.<\/p>\n
Art\u0131k faiz swaplar\u0131nda (faiz takas\u0131: taraflar\u0131n sabit ve de\u011fi\u015fken faiz \u00f6demelerini birbirleriyle de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi t\u00fcrev s\u00f6zle\u015fme) 2026\u2019n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda BOK\u2019un faiz indirimi yapmayaca\u011f\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck bir fiyatlama g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. BOK, enflasyonu (genel fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in 2025 boyunca politika faizini %3,50\u2019de sabit tutmu\u015ftu; bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrprizi, \u015fimdilik gev\u015femeye (faiz indirimi ve daha destekleyici politika) ihtiya\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Faizlerin beklenenden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 senaryosuna ba\u011fl\u0131 pozisyonlarda (yat\u0131r\u0131m duru\u015fu) de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u00f6zellikle merkez bankas\u0131 daha \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d olan (g\u00fcvercin: faiz indirimine daha yatk\u0131n) \u00fclke para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 G\u00fcney Kore wonunda (KRW) olumlu bir duru\u015fu destekliyor. USD\/KRW paritesi (dolar\u0131n won kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011feri) bu y\u0131l 1.350\u2019nin \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.310\u2019a gerilerken, won lehine al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (call option: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) daha fazla ilgi g\u00f6rmesini bekliyoruz. Bu veri, s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu koruyan BOK ile yaz aylar\u0131nda olas\u0131 faiz indirimi sinyali veren ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 (farkl\u0131 faiz y\u00f6n\u00fc) art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Hisse taraf\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik temel g\u00f6stergeler nedeniyle KOSPI endeksi i\u00e7in ilk tepki olumlu olabilir. Ancak faiz indirimlerinin gecikmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u015firket de\u011ferleme \u00e7arpanlar\u0131n\u0131 (\u00f6r. F\/K: fiyat\/kazan\u00e7 gibi de\u011ferleme oranlar\u0131) s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye duyarl\u0131 teknoloji hisselerinde bu risk daha belirgin. KOSPI 200 vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 (futures: gelecekte belirli fiyattan al\u0131m-sat\u0131m taahh\u00fcd\u00fc i\u00e7eren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma i\u015fareti a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz; ayr\u0131ca faiz kaynakl\u0131 dalgalanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) da de\u011ferlendirebiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u00fcrpriz b\u00fcy\u00fcme! G\u00fcney Kore GSYH\u2019si ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,6 ile beklenti %2,7\u2019yi a\u015ft\u0131; BOK\u2019un faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azal\u0131yor, won g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; KOSPI destek bulsa da de\u011ferlemeler bask\u0131lanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45281","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45281"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45281\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}