USD\/JPY \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,50 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti; Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,64\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Kur 159,10-159,60 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck mumlar (k\u0131sa g\u00f6vdeli mumlar, y\u00f6n\u00fcn net olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir) s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Mart d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi (ihracat-ithalat fark\u0131) \u00a51.106 milyar beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00a5667 milyar fazla (surplus) verdi. \u0130thalat y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %10,9 artt\u0131 (beklenti %7,1), ihracat ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %11,7 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyrini koruyor. Bu durum Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat maliyetlerini art\u0131rarak yeni bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi), ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki gerilimin azalmas\u0131 halinde de\u011fi\u015febilir.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (Initial Jobless Claims: ilk kez i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurusu; beklenti 212 bin, \u00f6nceki 207 bin) ve Nisan ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. PMI (Sat\u0131n Alma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi: \u015firketlerin yeni sipari\u015f, \u00fcretim ve istihdam gibi kalemlere g\u00f6re faaliyet h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en anket) taraf\u0131nda Hizmetler i\u00e7in 50 civar\u0131, \u0130malat i\u00e7in 52,5 civar\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Japonya\u2019da da Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. \u00c7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin (taze g\u0131da hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor (\u00f6nceki %1,6). Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Michigan \u00dcniversitesi verileri gelecek; 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,8 seviyesinde \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Grafiklerde USD\/JPY 159,48\u2019deydi; 15 dakikal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma (konsolidasyon: dar bantta yatay hareket) ve Stochastic RSI 30 civar\u0131nda. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte fiyat 50 EMA (\u00fcstel hareketli ortalama: son fiyatlara daha fazla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren ortalama) 158,25\u2019in ve 200 EMA 154,93\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde; Stochastic RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 31,9.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131, dolar\u0131n yene kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ana nedeni. Bu tema, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) Mart 2024\u2019te negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 bitirmesinden beri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; BoJ\u2019un k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri y\u00fcksek tutmas\u0131 yan\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. 159,50 civar\u0131ndaki duraklama, piyasan\u0131n yeni bir tetikleyici (kataliz\u00f6r) bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in May\u0131s veya Haziran 2026 vadeli \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonu (mevcut fiyat\u0131n \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 olan al\u0131m hakk\u0131; prim daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olur, risk \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r) almak, y\u00fckseli\u015ften s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle faydalanma yolu sunar. 160,50 civar\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131, son s\u0131k\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 beklentisiyle mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir seviye olabilir. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, fiyat\u0131n uzun vadeli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131yla destekleniyor; bu da ana y\u00fckseli\u015f yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n korundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, \u00f6zellikle Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015fan enflasyon verisiyle yenin aniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi riski var. Beklentinin \u00fczerinde bir T\u00dcFE, BoJ\u2019un yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapabilece\u011fi beklentisini art\u0131rabilir. Bu senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131, 158,25 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge) sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n
Dar i\u015flem band\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00f6nemli veriler nedeniyle, oynakl\u0131k (volatilite: fiyatlar\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve geni\u015f dalgalanmas\u0131) odakl\u0131 bir strateji daha temkinli olabilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu almak (straddle benzeri yakla\u015f\u0131m), fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten kazan\u00e7 hedefler. ABD PMI ve Japonya T\u00dcFE verileri, mevcut karars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonland\u0131rabilecek potansiyele sahip.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 159,50\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Ticaret fazlas\u0131na ra\u011fmen petrol ve faiz fark\u0131 yeni bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasalar ABD PMI\/i\u015fsizlik ve Japonya T\u00dcFE\u2019yi bekliyor; 160,50 call, 158,25 alt\u0131 put\/straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45276","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45276"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45276\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45276"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45276"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45276"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}