GBP\/JPY, \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti. Piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 n\u00f6tr kal\u0131rken ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilim y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken parite 215,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde ikinci g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7irdi.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fckseli\u015fin g\u00fcc\u00fc zay\u0131fl\u0131yor ve parite, 215,91 olan y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131k\u00e7a ara verebilir. \u0130vme (fiyat hareketinin h\u0131z\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\/a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m durumunu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Parite 220,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karsa, diren\u00e7 (y\u00fckseli\u015fte zorlan\u0131lan seviye) olarak 230,37 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; bu seviye Aral\u0131k 2007\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen ara zirve. Bunun da a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde s\u0131radaki seviye, Ekim 2007\u2019deki tepe olan 241,39 civar\u0131.<\/p>\n
GBP\/JPY 215,00\u2019in alt\u0131na inerse, izlenecek ilk seviye Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn dibi 214,41. Daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 214,00 (17 Nisan dip seviyesi) ve 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA, son 20 g\u00fcn\u00fcn ortalama fiyat\u0131) 213,25 takip edilecek seviyeler.<\/p>\n
22 Nisan saat 19:33 GMT tarihli d\u00fczeltme, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 313,25 de\u011fil 213,25 oldu\u011funu teyit etti.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en bahardaki analize d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, GBP\/JPY\u2019nin 215,00 \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 (dar bantta hareket etti\u011fi) ve ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. RSI zay\u0131flamaya i\u015faret ederek, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyordu. O d\u00f6nemde y\u00fckseli\u015fin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve yeni bir tetikleyiciye ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyordu.<\/p>\n
Bu tetikleyici, para politikas\u0131ndaki kal\u0131c\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fma (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde faiz ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131) oldu ve k\u0131sa vadeli risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 (piyasan\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131) geri planda b\u0131rakt\u0131. 2025\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ve bu y\u0131la girerken, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon nedeniyle s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu (faizleri y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimi) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek zorunda kald\u0131. Bu, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) destekleyici politikas\u0131n\u0131n (faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutma ve piyasaya likidite verme) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda belirgin bir fark yaratt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Verilerde de bu ayr\u0131\u015fma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u0130ngiltere \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7) %3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kalarak BoE\u2019nin elini ba\u011flad\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k BoJ, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l negatif faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 resmi olarak sonland\u0131rmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen politika faizini s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n tuttu. Bu temel fark, pariteyi 215,00 seviyesinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yan ana unsur oldu.<\/p>\n
Parite art\u0131k 2025 seviyelerinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (opsiyon gibi, de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 kontrat) i\u015flemi yapanlar, y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesine ancak h\u0131z\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131na uygun stratejilere bakabilir. 220,00 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m opsiyonu (call, belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) almak, 230,37\u2019deki tarihi dirence do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131lman\u0131n bir yoludur. Al\u0131m spreadi (bull call spread: bir call al\u0131p daha yukar\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak) ise y\u00fckseli\u015fin daha kademeli olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinde ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Sert y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131; buna paralel olarak ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility, opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) artt\u0131. GBP\/JPY\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonundaki %9 seviyesinden bu ay %11\u2019in \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi. Bu durum, uzun vadede y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleyenler i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131m opsiyonu (out-of-the-money put, fiyat piyasan\u0131n alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funda) satmay\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekici hale getirir; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek prim (opsiyon sat\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccret) toplan\u0131rken, pariteyi sat\u0131n almak istenecek daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviye de belirlenmi\u015f olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
GBP\/JPY\u2019de tempo d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor: 215,00 \u00fcst\u00fcnde tutunma s\u00fcrse de RSI zay\u0131f. 220,00 a\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa 230,37 g\u00fcndemde. 215,00 alt\u0131 214,41-213,25. BoE-BoJ ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 destek, opsiyonda volatilite y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45267","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45267"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45267\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45267"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45267"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45267"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}