Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti. ABD Hazine tahvili faizlerinin (devlet bor\u00e7lanma k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n getirisi) gerilemesi alt\u0131na destek verirken Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya ili\u015fkin belirsizlik s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Alt\u0131n, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 4.772 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.726 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. <\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran bayrakl\u0131 gemilere y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 sonras\u0131 yeniden durdu. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 (IRGC), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u00fc\u00e7 y\u00fck gemisine el koydu ve ablukan\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi. Donald Trump ise ate\u015fkesi uzatt\u0131 ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n teklifini bekledi. <\/p>\n
ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi, g\u00fcn i\u00e7indeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan %4,298\u2019e geldi; bu durum alt\u0131ndaki toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131) bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret ederek ABD\u2019de faizlerin uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. <\/p>\n
Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re para piyasalar\u0131 (faiz vadeli i\u015flemleri), 2026\u2019da Fed\u2019in (ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131) faiz indirmeyece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor; ilk indirim beklentisi Temmuz 2027\u2019ye \u00f6telenmi\u015f durumda. ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar verisi harcamalar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi; art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 benzin fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fland\u0131. Atlanta Fed\u2019in GDPNow g\u00f6stergesi (anl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini), 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde %1,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
Fed Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in aday Kevin Warsh, Senato\u2019ya yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u201cforward guidance\u201d\u0131 (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n gelecekteki faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nceden y\u00f6nlendirme) desteklemedi\u011fini, merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (siyasi etkiden uzak karar alma) savundu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fc) %0,17 art\u0131\u015fla 98,57\u2019ye y\u00fckselerek yedi g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasada per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 (haftal\u0131k ilk ba\u015fvurular) ve S&P Global Flash PMI\u2019lar (ay\u0131n ortas\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanan \u00f6nc\u00fc sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksleri; ekonomik aktiviteyi g\u00f6sterir) izlenecek. <\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n 4.800 dolar\u0131 a\u015famad\u0131 ve 4.750 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. Odakta 4.718 dolardaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA (basit hareketli ortalama; fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131ndaki ortalamas\u0131) var. Di\u011fer seviyeler: 4.692 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA, 4.600 dolar destek ve ayl\u0131k 4.890 dolar zirvesi sonras\u0131 4.883 dolardaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA diren\u00e7. <\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi. <\/p>\n
Piyasa, Fed\u2019in faizleri uzun s\u00fcre sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131na daha fazla inand\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in alt\u0131n bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar, alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan \u00f6nemli bir engel olu\u015fturuyor. Bu tablo, alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f denemelerinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrme ihtimalini ve sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini destekliyor. <\/p>\n
Piyasa bu \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015fu (faizlerin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131ndan yana tutum) b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlad\u0131. CME FedWatch Tool (vadeli i\u015flemlere g\u00f6re faiz ihtimali g\u00f6stergesi) 2026\u2019n\u0131n herhangi bir d\u00f6neminde faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %10\u2019un alt\u0131na indiriyor. Bu, alt\u0131n gibi \u201cgetirisi olmayan\u201d varl\u0131k (faiz\/kupon \u00f6demesi \u00fcretmeyen) tutman\u0131n maliyetinin y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve PMI verilerinde ekonomide zay\u0131flama sinyali olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenecek. <\/p>\n
N\u00f6trden negatife d\u00f6nen risk alg\u0131s\u0131nda, 4.700 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip put opsiyonlar\u0131 (sat\u0131m opsiyonu; belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) almak temkinli bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Alt\u0131n kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle 4.692 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa bu pozisyonlar kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilir. Bu, mevcut a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumdan (h\u0131z ve y\u00f6n) yararlanma yolu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/p>\n
Ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik risklerin alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131na taban olu\u015fturdu\u011fu da unutulmamal\u0131. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ya\u015fanacak ciddi bir t\u0131rmanma, fiyat\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rat\u0131p d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131labilir. Bu nedenle uzun vadeli ve \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde olan) call opsiyonlar\u0131 (al\u0131m opsiyonu; belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) ani d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma (hedge; risk dengeleme) ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131labilir. <\/p>\n
4.800 dolar direnci g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; \u00f6zellikle dolar endeksi yedi g\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesinde kal\u0131rken. Y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler i\u00e7in, bu seviyede ya da \u00fczerinde \u201ccall spread\u201d satmak (iki farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131yla al\u0131m opsiyonu kombinasyonu; risk\/s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f getiri) gelir \u00fcretme amac\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, hem fiyat\u0131n gerilemesinden hem de yatay seyrin s\u00fcrmesinden faydalan\u0131r; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc zaman de\u011feri (vade uzad\u0131k\u00e7a eriyen opsiyon primi) azal\u0131r. <\/p>\n
VT Markets canl\u0131 hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 durgunluk: XAU\/USD 4.750\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. D\u00fc\u015fen tahvil faizleri destek olurken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve Fed\u2019in uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz beklentisi bask\u0131l\u0131yor; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riskleri taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45261"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45261\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}