ABD, 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvillerinde yap\u0131lan ihalede faizi (tahvilin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 getiri oran\u0131) %4,883 oldu. \u00d6nceki ihalede bu seviye %4,817 idi.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fim 0,066 y\u00fczde puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Sonu\u00e7, bu vadede bor\u00e7lanma maliyetinin (devletin bor\u00e7lan\u0131rken \u00f6dedi\u011fi faiz) \u00f6nceki sat\u0131\u015fa g\u00f6re y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Son 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesinde talep daha zay\u0131f kald\u0131 ve faiz %4,883\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bu, piyasan\u0131n uzun vadeli devlet borcunu (Hazine tahvili) elde tutmak i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek getiri istedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu beklenti, faizlerin (politika faizi ve piyasa faizleri) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu tablo, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerini erteleyebilece\u011fi sinyalini veriyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz i\u015flemleri yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, faizlerin kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olma mesaj\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, SOFR vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri (ABD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli faiz referans\u0131 olan SOFR\u2019a dayal\u0131 vadeli kontratlar) gibi t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerle (fiyat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansal \u00fcr\u00fcnler) yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almay\u0131 ya da Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon (fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oynama) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi de\u011ferlendirebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc getiriler y\u00fckselirse tahvil fiyatlar\u0131 genelde d\u00fc\u015fer.<\/p>\n
Verilere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Mart 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE, enflasyonu \u00f6l\u00e7en g\u00f6sterge) y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun %3,1\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu seviye, Fed\u2019in hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Bu da \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse piyasalar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek faizin s\u00fcrmesi, \u00f6zellikle teknoloji \u015firketlerinde k\u00e2rlar\u0131 ve de\u011ferlemeleri (\u015firketlerin piyasa de\u011ferinin hesaplanmas\u0131) bask\u0131layabilir. Bu durumda Nasdaq 100 gibi endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put option: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131 veren s\u00f6zle\u015fme) almak, olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla kullan\u0131labilir. VIX (piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 endeksi; korku endeksi) ge\u00e7en ay 14 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyedeydi; oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor. Bu nedenle oynakl\u0131\u011fa y\u00f6nelik uzun pozisyonlar (oynakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131na oynama) daha cazip hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 da destekler; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc daha y\u00fcksek getiri yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi \u00e7eker. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin Japon yeni) dolar almak, makul bir strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. ABD ve Japon devlet tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki getiri fark\u0131 425 baz puan\u0131n (baz puan: y\u00fczde puan\u0131n y\u00fczde biri; 1 bp = %0,01) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu da ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemini (carry trade: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli para biriminden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p y\u00fcksek faizli varl\u0131kta de\u011ferlendirme) daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Canl\u0131 VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturun<\/a>\u00a0ve\u00a0i\u015fleme ba\u015flay\u0131n<\/a>\u00a0. <\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" ABD 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil ihalesinde faiz %4,883\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; talep zay\u0131flad\u0131. Piyasalar \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201di fiyatl\u0131yor: Fed indirimi \u00f6telenebilir. Tahvil bask\u0131s\u0131, Nasdaq ve volatilite riskini art\u0131r\u0131rken dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45258\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}