Euro, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ate\u015fkesin uzat\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilimin s\u00fcrmesiyle \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi. EUR\/USD paritesi 1,1712 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken ikinci g\u00fcnde de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY: dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferini g\u00f6steren endeks) ise 98,57 civar\u0131nda, bir haftan\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran medyas\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda iki gemiye el koydu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Deniz Ticareti Operasyonlar\u0131 (UKMTO: b\u00f6lgedeki deniz ticareti g\u00fcvenli\u011fini izleyen birim) da daha \u00f6nce iki gemi ile \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc bir geminin bo\u011fazda sald\u0131r\u0131ya u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin deniz ablukas\u0131, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkesi biti\u015f s\u00fcresine az kala uzatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan da y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte kald\u0131. Trump g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin en erken Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131labilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Tasnim Haber Ajans\u0131 Tahran\u2019\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131p kat\u0131lmama konusunda karar vermedi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu. Bu durum enflasyon (fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131) riskini g\u00fcndemde tutarken, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) i\u00e7in faiz beklentilerini etkiledi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni -16,3\u2019ten -20,6\u2019ya gerileyerek son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 zay\u0131f kald\u0131; piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerdeydi.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn bu ayr\u0131\u015fma (ABD ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi para politikas\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareket etmesi) daha belirgin. ABD Dolar Endeksi 98,5 civar\u0131ndan 105,80\u2019in \u00fczerine y\u00fckselirken, EUR\/USD 1,0730 seviyesini korumakta zorlan\u0131yor. Fed fonlama faizi %5,50, ECB\u2019nin mevduat faizi %4,00 seviyesinde. Bu durum, dolar ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 (daha y\u00fcksek faiz getiren para birimini elde tutmay\u0131) cazip k\u0131lan belirgin bir faiz fark\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l H\u00fcrm\u00fcz kaynakl\u0131 tansiyon azalm\u0131\u015f olsa da jeopolitik belirsizlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; odak Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar ve G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizi\u2019ndeki ticaret gerilimlerine kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu ortam, stres d\u00f6nemlerinde dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel rezerv para (merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ana para birimi) rol\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor. S\u00fcregelen riskler, beklenmedik haberlerle kurlarda sert hareketlere neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor. Bu durumdan yararlanmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar EUR\/USD put opsiyonu (parite d\u00fc\u015ferse de\u011fer kazanan opsiyon) alarak zay\u0131f Avrupa b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin bask\u0131s\u0131yla gelebilecek yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Alternatif olarak, \u201cshort strangle\u201d gibi bant stratejileri (fiyat\u0131n belirli bir aral\u0131kta kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle al\u0131m ve sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte satma; risk: sert hareketlerde zarar b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilir) merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz de\u011fi\u015fimlerine uzun s\u00fcre ara verece\u011fi sinyali vermesi halinde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kabilir.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni ge\u00e7en y\u0131l -20,6 iken ge\u00e7en ay -14,9\u2019a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparland\u0131; bu da ekonomik k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (ekonominin \u015foklara a\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131n\u0131n) s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. ABD\u2019de enflasyon %3,5 ile y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde %2,4 seviyesinde. Bu nedenle faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede kapanmas\u0131 zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, 3-6 ay vadeli forward s\u00f6zle\u015fmeler (bug\u00fcnden kur sabitleyerek ileri tarihte al\u0131m-sat\u0131m yapma anla\u015fmas\u0131) kullanarak euroyu dolara kar\u015f\u0131 satmak, \u201ccarry trade\u201d (faiz fark\u0131ndan getiri elde etmeyi hedefleyen i\u015flem) f\u0131rsat\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir strateji olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de tansiyon d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor: Euro, ate\u015fkes uzasa da jeopolitik risk ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc DXY bask\u0131s\u0131yla zay\u0131flad\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131 dolar lehine; enflasyon ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00fcven, EUR\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45257"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45257\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}