GBP\/USD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti. Jeopolitik gerginlik y\u00fcksek kal\u0131rken, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 konusunda ilerleme sa\u011flanmad\u0131. Parite 1,3514 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmedi.<\/p>\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 son Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyon verilerine kayd\u0131. Veriler, enerji \u015fokunun (enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ani ve sert art\u0131\u015f\u0131n) fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki etkisini yans\u0131tt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n 1,3514 seviyesini \u201csa\u011flam bir taban\u201d (fiyat\u0131n s\u0131k s\u0131k tutundu\u011fu destek seviyesi) olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz; jeopolitik haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ise ana dikkat da\u011f\u0131t\u0131c\u0131 unsurdu. 2022\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131ndaki bu sakin d\u00f6nem yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131yd\u0131; parite ayn\u0131 y\u0131l Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e gelindi\u011finde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,03\u2019e kadar geriledi. O d\u00f6nemden \u00e7\u0131kan ders \u015fu: Enflasyon gibi temel ekonomik bask\u0131lar, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ge\u00e7ici t\u0131kanmalar\u0131 zamanla g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcne gelirsek, GBP\/USD 1,2850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken tabloyu man\u015fetlerden \u00e7ok faiz farklar\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin politika faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark) belirliyor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) hedefin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in son iki \u00e7eyrektir faizi %4,5\u2019te tutuyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,9 seviyesinde \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kalmas\u0131 (kolay gerilememesi) hedefin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 ise faizi %4,75\u2019e indirdikten sonra \u201cbeklemeye ge\u00e7me\u201d sinyali veriyor; bu da daha \u00f6nce dolar\u0131 destekleyen getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131 (daha y\u00fcksek faiz nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n elde etti\u011fi ek kazanc\u0131) daralt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu dar faiz fark\u0131, z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ima etti\u011fi beklenen fiyat dalgalanmas\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn (de\u011feri ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 s\u00f6zle\u015fme) i\u015flemi yapanlar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Y\u00f6n tahmini yapmadan sert hareket bekleyenler i\u00e7in straddle (ayn\u0131 vadede ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m hem sat\u0131m opsiyonu alma stratejisi) almak mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m. Piyasa s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k veya ABD\u2019den gelecek bir sonraki \u00f6nemli enflasyon ya da istihdam verisi, mevcut band\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lma (fiyat\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 aral\u0131ktan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131) tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
2025\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131nca, sterlinin ABD\u2019de daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indirimi beklentisiyle birka\u00e7 kez y\u00fckselmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak zay\u0131f Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileriyle geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7eyrekte Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH (Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la; ekonominin toplam \u00fcretim de\u011feri) b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yaln\u0131zca %0,2 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk daha y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle, k\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme iste\u011fi) bozulursa sterlinde ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in ucuz, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda olan, daha ucuz ama daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan opsiyon) da de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n
Sterlin\/dolar yatay; jeopolitik risk s\u00fcrerken odak UK enflasyonda. As\u0131l s\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc faiz fark\u0131: BoE %4,5\u2019te, Fed gev\u015feme sinyali. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oynakl\u0131k straddle\u2019\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor; zay\u0131f UK b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi sterlinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 riski art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45256"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45256\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}