{"id":45251,"date":"2026-04-22T22:55:05","date_gmt":"2026-04-22T22:55:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-ateskesi-surerken-ve-rbanin-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-guclu-kalirken-aud-usd-07160a-yakin-yukseldi\/"},"modified":"2026-04-22T22:55:05","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T22:55:05","slug":"abd-iran-ateskesi-surerken-ve-rbanin-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-guclu-kalirken-aud-usd-07160a-yakin-yukseldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-ateskesi-surerken-ve-rbanin-faiz-artirimi-beklentileri-guclu-kalirken-aud-usd-07160a-yakin-yukseldi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi s\u00fcrerken ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentileri g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken AUD\/USD 0,7160\u2019a yak\u0131n y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"

AUD\/USD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseldi ve 0,7160 civar\u0131nda, %0,12 art\u0131da i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran ile ate\u015fkesi uzatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n (yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filimi) g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini izledi.<\/p>\n

Washington, Tahran\u2019dan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yeniden ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in \u201cortak bir teklif\u201d beklerken askeri ate\u015fkesin s\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ABD ayr\u0131ca, k\u00fcresel petrol ticareti i\u00e7in kritik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u0130ran gemilerine y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 (denizden ge\u00e7i\u015fleri k\u0131s\u0131tlama) s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Kaynaklar, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc kadar erken bir tarihte yap\u0131labilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n

Fed A\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 Dolar\u0131 Destekledi<\/h3>\n

ABD Dolar\u0131, Senato\u2019daki oturumda konu\u015fan Fed Ba\u015fkan aday\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla destek buldu. Warsh, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n (merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz ve likidite kararlar\u0131) ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z kalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini, Beyaz Saray\u2019a faiz indirimi konusunda herhangi bir taahh\u00fctte bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Reuters\u2019\u0131n ekonomist anketine g\u00f6re Fed, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 nedeniyle faizi en az Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutabilir. Anket, ekonomistlerin \u00e7o\u011funun yine de y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir faiz indirimi bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

Avustralya\u2019da ise daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika beklentileri (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131) AUD\u2019u destekledi. RBA (Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131), daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu %6\u2019ya do\u011fru itebilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Piyasalar, Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Andrew Hauser\u2019\u0131n enflasyon beklentilerini \u201c\u00e7apalama\u201d (beklentileri belirli bir hedef etraf\u0131nda sabitleme) vurgusunu yinelemesinin ard\u0131ndan, bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %77 olarak fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Dikkat daha sonra Avustralya ve ABD i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc S&P Global PMI verilerine \u00e7evrildi. PMI (Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi), imalat ve hizmetlerde faaliyet d\u00fczeyini g\u00f6steren, b\u00fcy\u00fcme sinyali veren bir ankettir. Veriler, k\u0131sa vadeli para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n

Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Tersine D\u00f6nd\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu d\u00f6nemde ana tema para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yd\u0131; RBA daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha yatk\u0131n) bir duru\u015f sergilerken, Fed\u2019in \u201cgev\u015femeye\u201d (faiz indirimine) gidece\u011fi bekleniyordu. Bu anlat\u0131, RBA\u2019n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131yla AUD\/USD paritesini 2025 sonuna do\u011fru 0,7160 seviyesinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bug\u00fcn ise (22 Nisan 2026) tablo tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n son \u00e7eyreklik enflasyon raporu, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun %3,6\u2019ya geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l endi\u015fe edilen %6 seviyesine k\u0131yasla belirgin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. Bu durum, piyasalar\u0131n ilave RBA faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemden \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Swap piyasas\u0131 (gelecekteki faiz beklentilerinin al\u0131n\u0131p sat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa) art\u0131k y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz indirimi ihtimalini %40 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. B\u00f6ylece Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n 2025 boyunca sahip oldu\u011fu temel destek zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD taraf\u0131nda ise fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131. Son ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE (CPI: t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi) verisi enflasyonun %3,5 ile \u201cinat\u00e7\u0131\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Mart ay\u0131 istihdam raporunun 303 bin yeni i\u015f eklemesinin ard\u0131ndan Fed yetkilileri yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentilerine sert \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu \u015fahin duru\u015f, ABD dolar\u0131na destek veriyor.<\/p>\n

ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n lehine yeniden olu\u015fan bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, AUD\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli vadede belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Temmuz 2026 vadeli ve 0,6400 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike: opsiyonun sabit i\u015flem fiyat\u0131) yak\u0131n putlar, parite i\u00e7in koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility: opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131yan beklenen dalgalanma) bir sonraki merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde artabilece\u011finden, bu t\u00fcr pozisyonlar i\u00e7in zamanlama uygun g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kritik soru: AUD\/USD 0,7160\u2019a y\u00fckselse de r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine mi? Trump\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkesi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; Fed \u015fahin, RBA\u2019da indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. Put opsiyonu g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45251"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45251\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}