USD\/JPY \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 159,30 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve d\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte 159,27 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek son zirvelere yak\u0131n yatay seyretti. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda gemilere y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar dahil Orta Do\u011fu haberleri, \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d (riskli d\u00f6nemlerde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n s\u0131\u011f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 varl\u0131k) olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talebi destekledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasa hareketleri, ate\u015fkes haberleri ile belirsizli\u011fin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcml\u00fc gelmesi nedeniyle dengesizdi ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde sert dalgalanmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri (devlet tahvillerinin faiz oran\u0131), Dolar\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve USD\/JPY kazanc\u0131n\u0131 frenledi.<\/p>\n
Japon Yeni, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) temkinli kalmas\u0131 ve yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na dair net mesaj vermemesiyle zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu durum \u201cs\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma\u201d (faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve\/veya daha k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131) beklentilerini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyen getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 (iki \u00fclkenin faiz\/bor\u00e7lanma maliyeti aras\u0131ndaki fark) korudu.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta parite, 20 d\u00f6nemlik SMA (Basit Hareketli Ortalama; belirli d\u00f6nem fiyat ortalamas\u0131) 159,01 ve 100 d\u00f6nemlik SMA 159,15 seviyelerinin \u00fczerinde kalarak hafif pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc korudu. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi; momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 55\u2019e yak\u0131nd\u0131; a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m (\u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 d\u00fczeltme riski artar) sinyali vermeden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 pozitif e\u011filime i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Diren\u00e7 159,37\u2019deydi. Destekler 159,25, 159,20, 159,15, 159,12 ve 159,01 seviyelerinde bulunuyor. Bu b\u00f6lgenin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131flatabilir; 159,37 \u00fczeri hareket ise ek y\u00fckseli\u015fe i\u015faret edebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na \u201cjeopolitik risk primi\u201d (siyasi\/askeri riskler nedeniyle kurda olu\u015fan ek de\u011ferleme) fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. 2025\u2019te K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde, benzer deniz yolu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY; dolar\u0131n ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fc) iki haftadan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede %1,2 y\u00fckseltti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Benzer bir senaryoya daha temkinli \u015fekilde haz\u0131rlanmak i\u00e7in, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d (kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 mevcut fiyat\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda; ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmezse de\u011fersiz kalabilir) ucuz al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nabilir; bu strateji ani \u201cg\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201dta kazan\u00e7 hedefler.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda Yeni\u2019nin temel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir \u201ctaban\u201d olu\u015fturuyor. 2025 sonlar\u0131nda 475 baz puan\u0131n (1 baz puan = %0,01) \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen ABD-Japonya faiz fark\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 pariteyi destekleyen ana uzun vadeli unsur. Bu nedenle sert geri \u00e7ekilmelerde sat\u0131\u015f yapmak yerine al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlanmak s\u0131k kullan\u0131lan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u201cbull call spread\u201d (y\u00fckseli\u015f hedefli al\u0131m opsiyonu stratejisi; bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satmak) daha \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc bir tercih olabilir. 159,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call al\u0131p ayn\u0131 anda 160,50 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call satarak, kademeli y\u00fckseli\u015fe oynan\u0131rken maksimum risk (\u00f6denen net prim) s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. Bu yap\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimden faydalan\u0131rken ate\u015fkes haberleri gibi ters s\u00fcrprizlere kar\u015f\u0131 riski azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, s\u00fcrekli de\u011fi\u015fen man\u015fetler bant k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iki y\u00f6ne de sert hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bir ayl\u0131k \u201cima edilen volatilite\u201d (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen oynakl\u0131k) %11,5\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; ge\u00e7en ay %8,0 dip g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu, piyasan\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu ortamda \u201cstrangle\u201d (farkl\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131nda, hem call hem put alma; b\u00fcy\u00fck hareketten faydalanmay\u0131 hedefler) almak, artan oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in daha temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 dolar talebini art\u0131rd\u0131, USD\/JPY 159,30\u2019da yatay. D\u00fc\u015fen ABD tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken BoJ\u2019nin temkinli tonu Yeni\u2019yi zay\u0131f tutuyor; 159,37 \u00fcst\u00fc yeni ivme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45250"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45250\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}