Alt\u0131n, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n ate\u015fkesin bitmesine k\u0131sa s\u00fcre kala s\u00fcreyi uzatmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na dair temkinli hava s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6nceki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. XAU\/USD (alt\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki fiyat\u0131) 4.735 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi 4.668 dolard\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ranl\u0131 liderler, \u201ctehdit g\u00f6lgesi alt\u0131nda\u201d m\u00fczakereyi reddetti ve Pakistan\u2019da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen ikinci tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere kat\u0131lmad\u0131. Trump, Pakistan y\u00f6netiminin \u0130ran\u2019a ortak bir teklif haz\u0131rlamas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u00fcre uzat\u0131m\u0131 istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik deniz ablukas\u0131 (deniz yoluyla ticaretin engellenmesi) s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Trump, bir teklif sunulana ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler bitene kadar ordunun ablukay\u0131 devam ettirmesi talimat\u0131n\u0131 verdi. New York Post, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin en erken Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131labilece\u011fini yazd\u0131; Tasnim ise Tahran\u2019\u0131n bu tarih konusunda karar vermedi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131ndaki toparlanma, ABD faizlerinin daha y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi nedeniyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Alt\u0131n, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 geriledi. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan (k\u00fcresel petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktas\u0131) arz\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalmas\u0131yla y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu.<\/p>\n
ABD verilerine g\u00f6re Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar Mart\u2019ta ayl\u0131k bazda %1,7 artt\u0131 (\u015eubat: %0,7). T\u00dcFE (T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi, enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi) ayl\u0131k %0,9 y\u00fckseldi (\u00f6nceki: %0,3). Grafiklerde alt\u0131n, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n (Basit Hareketli Ortalama, fiyat\u0131n belirli g\u00fcn ortalamas\u0131) 4.731 dolar seviyesinin ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n 4.236 dolar seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; ancak 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.882 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretti. RSI (G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi, momentum g\u00f6stergesi) 48 oldu. MACD (Hareketli Ortalama Yak\u0131nsama-Iraksama, trend\/momentum g\u00f6stergesi) pozitif kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bask\u0131layan \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ortam\u0131, Nisan 2026 itibar\u0131yla da ana tema olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Mart T\u00dcFE verisi, enflasyonun %3,5 ile kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, piyasada bu y\u0131l beklenen baz\u0131 Fed faiz indirimlerinin fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, jeopolitik riskle gelen \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d talebine ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu z\u0131tl\u0131kta yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, y\u00f6n tahmini yapmak yerine oynakl\u0131\u011fa (volatilite: fiyat\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert dalgalanmas\u0131) odaklanabilir. Alt\u0131n opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite (opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015faret etti\u011fi beklenen dalgalanma) y\u00fckseliyor; bu da piyasada sert bir fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rl\u0131k oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu belirsizlikten fayda sa\u011flayacak i\u015flemler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik olarak 4.882 dolar seviyesi \u00f6nemli bir e\u015fik olmaya devam ediyor. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde 5.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne hedefli al\u0131m opsiyonu (call: belirli fiyattan alma hakk\u0131) olas\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Tersine, 4.882 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na al\u0131m y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma i\u00e7in sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put: belirli fiyattan satma hakk\u0131) ile risk azalt\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyat\u0131, 2025\u2019teki deniz ablukas\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi kritik bir de\u011fi\u015fken. EIA (ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi) verileri, ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda beklenmedik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi; bu da petrol\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor ve Fed\u2019in faiz indirmekte zorlanmas\u0131na neden olan enflasyon endi\u015felerini besliyor. Bu tablo, alt\u0131n\u0131n \u201csadece g\u00fcvenli liman\u201d gibi de\u011fil, enerji piyasas\u0131na duyarl\u0131 (y\u00fcksek beta: piyasa hareketlerine daha sert tepki veren) bir varl\u0131k gibi i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda tansiyon s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Trump ate\u015fkesi uzatsa da ABD-\u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi ve liman ablukas\u0131 fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek faiz beklentisi \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u0131\u201d s\u0131n\u0131rlarken 4.882 dolar kritik e\u015fik, volatilite stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45249"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45249\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}