Societe Generale, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeymesini bekliyor. Yeni veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki durum h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirsiz. Oda\u011f\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ve orta vadeli \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona (enerji ve g\u0131da gibi oynak kalemler hari\u00e7 enflasyon) kaymas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Banka art\u0131k Haziran\u2019da ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de olmak \u00fczere iki adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k (bp; y\u00fczde puan\u0131n 100\u2019de 1\u2019i) faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2027\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %2,6 olarak tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler ve s\u00fcren enflasyon riskleri nedeniyle para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ECB\u2019nin n\u00f6tr faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (ekonomiyi ne h\u0131zland\u0131ran ne yava\u015flatan \u201cdenge\u201d faiz seviyesi) \u00fcst band\u0131na yak\u0131n kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na (\u015firketlerin\/hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131k-bor\u00e7 yap\u0131s\u0131), planlanan yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) ve enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ve Almanya\u2019daki mali canland\u0131rmaya (kamu harcamas\u0131\/vergi ad\u0131mlar\u0131yla ekonomiyi destekleme) ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun olumsuz senaryoya yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu, 2027\u2019nin 1. \u00e7eyre\u011finde (1Q27) yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,8 ile zirve yapabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor. Banka, do\u011frusal olmayan etkiler (etkinin d\u00fcz bir \u00e7izgide artmamas\u0131) ve ikinci tur etkiler (\u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n maliyetleri art\u0131r\u0131p enflasyonu yeniden beslemesi) konusundaki belirsizli\u011fi vurgulayarak iki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6tesinde ek art\u0131\u015f eklemiyor.<\/p>\n
Demografik e\u011filimler nedeniyle i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 (i\u015f\u00e7i bulman\u0131n zor, \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu) kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve bunun \u00fccretler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca Almanya\u2019da i\u015fverence \u00f6denen vergisiz prim gibi ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede h\u0131zland\u0131rabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediliyor.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizlik ve yeni veri eksikli\u011fi nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Bu durum, k\u0131sa vadeli faiz opsiyonlar\u0131nda (faiz oran\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde) \u00f6rt\u00fck oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (piyasan\u0131n fiyatlardan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 beklenen dalgalanma) gerileyebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu da yak\u0131n vadeli primin (opsiyon fiyat\u0131n\u0131n) sat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat yaratabilir. Odak, bunun yerine b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ve kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyona kayacak.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin Mart 2025\u2019teki h\u0131zl\u0131 tepkisinden ders ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sonraki ad\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6nceden i\u015faret edece\u011fi; ilk ad\u0131m\u0131n Haziran\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ECB\u2019nin kendi \u201cm\u00fczakere edilen \u00fccret\u201d g\u00f6stergesi, 2025\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde %4,5 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek daha s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma (faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla talebi so\u011futma) ihtimalini destekliyor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131n (vadeli i\u015flemler, opsiyonlar ve swaplar gibi ara\u00e7lar\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc piyasa) Haziran ve Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlamas\u0131 beklenebilir; bu da \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in forward rate agreement\u2019lar\u0131 (FRA; belirli bir gelecekteki d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in bug\u00fcnden faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 sabitleyen s\u00f6zle\u015fme) daha cazip h\u00e2le getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Hanehalk\u0131 finansman\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 ve yapay zek\u00e2 ile enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri art\u0131r\u0131yor. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n Mart 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin \u201ch\u0131zl\u0131 tahmini\u201d (flash estimate; erken a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00f6nc\u00fc veri) \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu %2,9 ile y\u00fcksek ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir seviyede g\u00f6sterdi; bu oran ECB\u2019nin hedefinin \u00fczerinde. Bu ortam, enflasyona endeksli swaplar\u0131 (swap; iki taraf\u0131n nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fi s\u00f6zle\u015fme; burada enflasyon ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6deme yap\u0131s\u0131) enflasyonun uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya bu senaryoya pozisyon almak isteyenler i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ekirdek enflasyon 2027 ba\u015f\u0131nda %2,8\u2019e yak\u0131n bir zirve g\u00f6rebilse de ECB, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler nedeniyle temkinli kalacak. 2025\u2019teki politika tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, banka 2021-22 d\u00f6nemindeki hatalar\u0131 tekrarlamamak i\u00e7in \u00f6n al\u0131c\u0131 davranmak istiyor. Bu denge, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fini ancak k\u0131r\u0131lgan ekonomiyi sarsmamak i\u00e7in ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6nceden net bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6nlendirilece\u011fini (piyasaya \u201cmesaj verilece\u011fini\u201d) g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
S\u0131k\u0131 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, ECB\u2019nin duru\u015funu uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 b\u00f6lgede (finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 tutan, talebi bask\u0131layan seviye) tutmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Euro B\u00f6lgesi imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 (sat\u0131n alma y\u00f6neticileri endeksi; 50\u2019nin alt\u0131 daralmaya i\u015faret eder) Nisan 2026\u2019da 46,5 ile daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kalsa da demografik e\u011filimler yap\u0131sal \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Piyasa, uzun vadede daha y\u00fcksek bir n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131k\u00e7a daha yatay bir getiri e\u011frisi (k\u0131sa ve uzun vadeli tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n azalmas\u0131) g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Piyasalar dikkat: SocGen, ECB\u2019nin haftaya faizi sabit tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; Haziran ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25\u2019er bp art\u0131\u015f bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon 2027\u2019de %2,6; \u00fccret bask\u0131s\u0131, opsiyon primi sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve FRA\/enflasyon swaplar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45247","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45247"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45247\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}